MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		25	21	21	23	28	25	24	20	21	16	21
Exceeded High		18	16	16	18	26	21	20	14	14	9	8
Scenario Percentage		72%	76%	76%	78%	93%	84%	83%	70%	67%	56%	38%
Avg Max Increase		9.22%	8.49%	10.05%	9.47%	8.30%	10.46%	11.04%	14.38%	18.34%	11.67%	4.90%
Max Increase		18.48%	22.21%	35.68%	31.77%	27.07%	30.51%	43.95%	39.26%	81.17%	52.27%	12.56%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	14	18	14	15	16	13	15	17	14	6
Avg Max Decline		-1.42%	-1.70%	-1.71%	-1.72%	-1.45%	-1.95%	-1.64%	-2.24%	-1.64%	-2.70%	-0.46%
Max Decline		-6.64%	-8.22%	-5.70%	-6.71%	-5.99%	-6.90%	-4.26%	-5.72%	-3.74%	-6.29%	-2.11%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	6	9	8	5	8	5	5	10	4	2
2019 Contract Condition					Yes					Yes		Yes
Action					Yes					Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		17	23	24	22	17	20	21	25	24	29	24
Penetrated Low		15	18	21	12	13	17	19	22	23	20	12
Scenario Percentage		88%	78%	88%	55%	76%	85%	90%	88%	96%	69%	50%
Avg Max Decline		6.51%	6.78%	6.28%	7.63%	5.98%	5.44%	7.95%	9.15%	11.05%	7.39%	4.41%
Max Decline		20.00%	24.93%	29.75%	22.24%	15.51%	15.15%	15.07%	20.30%	29.75%	19.67%	11.99%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	17	18	10	15	16	19	23	16	10	8
Avg Max Increase		-3.97%	-2.29%	-3.16%	-2.60%	-2.07%	-3.48%	-2.53%	-2.58%	-2.77%	-1.84%	-1.02%
Max Increase		-12.58%	-8.41%	-11.93%	-8.43%	-4.40%	-7.95%	-8.94%	-6.86%	-13.63%	-9.20%	-4.87%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	10	11	6	7	14	9	11	7	4	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	No	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes
High	30.80	31.27	29.90	30.22	31.33	31.80	31.26	30.00	28.47	28.96	28.87	29.85
Low	28.63	29.10	28.28	28.43	28.82	30.54	28.99	27.83	26.50	27.21	27.57	27.53
Close/Last	30.36	29.30	29.11	28.66	31.04	30.89	29.01	28.17	27.85	28.49	27.88	28.64