MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		41	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	21	22	23	30	26	26	21	21	18	20
Exceeded High		17	16	17	19	27	22	22	16	14	11	11
Scenario Percentage		71%	76%	77%	83%	90%	85%	85%	76%	67%	61%	55%
Avg Max Increase		9.65%	8.49%	12.33%	11.93%	8.85%	11.72%	12.31%	19.89%	22.12%	13.58%	5.86%
Max Increase		18.48%	22.21%	48.88%	39.19%	27.07%	38.29%	43.95%	72.36%	81.17%	59.11%	12.56%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	14	18	15	15	17	14	17	18	13	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.45%	-1.70%	-1.73%	-1.66%	-1.61%	-1.99%	-2.03%	-3.01%	-1.28%	-3.35%	-1.43%
Max Decline		-6.64%	-8.22%	-5.70%	-6.71%	-5.99%	-6.90%	-7.70%	-9.75%	-3.74%	-10.83%	-5.08%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	6	9	8	5	8	5	6	7	5	3
2017 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes							Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes							Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		41	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		17	22	23	22	15	19	19	24	24	27	25
Penetrated Low		14	18	20	12	11	16	17	22	22	19	15
Scenario Percentage		82%	82%	87%	55%	73%	84%	89%	92%	92%	70%	60%
Avg Max Decline		6.72%	6.71%	6.36%	7.63%	5.68%	5.63%	8.00%	9.15%	11.29%	7.78%	5.25%
Max Decline		20.00%	24.93%	29.75%	22.24%	15.51%	15.15%	15.07%	20.30%	29.75%	19.67%	12.95%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	17	18	10	13	17	19	23	16	10	8
Avg Max Increase		-4.10%	-2.63%	-3.21%	-2.60%	-2.16%	-3.28%	-2.54%	-2.58%	-2.89%	-1.84%	-0.83%
Max Increase		-12.58%	-8.41%	-11.93%	-8.43%	-4.40%	-7.95%	-8.94%	-6.86%	-13.63%	-9.20%	-4.87%
Avg Days to Max Increase		14	10	11	6	6	14	9	11	7	4	3
2017 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Not Yet
High	34.95	36.76	37.84	38.29	37.05	35.52	35.14	32.72	33.64	33.61	35.29	35.13
Low	32.68	33.49	34.38	34.94	33.96	32.83	31.81	31.34	31.40	31.17	32.18	32.62
Close/Last	34.21	35.80	37.12	35.00	34.41	34.34	32.25	31.93	31.60	33.16	34.81	34.71