MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		40	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	19	22	24	29	26	26	21	20	19	20
Exceeded High		16	14	18	19	26	22	21	16	14	9	8
Scenario Percentage		70%	74%	82%	79%	90%	85%	81%	76%	70%	47%	40%
Avg Max Increase		9.41%	8.87%	12.73%	11.96%	9.29%	11.88%	12.35%	21.43%	22.87%	15.28%	4.90%
Max Increase		18.48%	22.21%	48.88%	39.19%	27.07%	38.29%	43.95%	72.36%	81.17%	52.27%	12.56%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	16	18	13	16	16	15	18	18	15	6
Avg Max Decline		-1.08%	-1.88%	-1.64%	-1.56%	-1.72%	-1.90%	-2.10%	-3.11%	-1.08%	-2.19%	-0.46%
Max Decline		-6.64%	-8.22%	-5.70%	-6.71%	-5.99%	-6.90%	-7.70%	-9.75%	-3.74%	-6.00%	-2.11%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	7	8	7	6	7	5	6	7	3	2
2014 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		No				Yes		No		No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		40	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		17	24	23	21	16	19	19	23	25	26	25
Penetrated Low		14	20	19	11	11	16	16	20	23	19	14
Scenario Percentage		82%	83%	83%	52%	69%	84%	84%	87%	92%	73%	56%
Avg Max Decline		6.72%	6.32%	6.34%	7.64%	5.69%	5.92%	8.68%	9.58%	10.81%	6.92%	5.24%
Max Decline		20.00%	24.93%	29.75%	22.24%	15.51%	15.15%	15.07%	20.30%	29.75%	19.67%	12.95%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	16	17	8	15	18	20	24	15	10	7
Avg Max Increase		-4.10%	-2.36%	-2.79%	-2.55%	-2.18%	-3.18%	-2.60%	-2.57%	-3.01%	-2.22%	-0.94%
Max Increase		-12.58%	-8.41%	-11.93%	-8.43%	-4.40%	-7.95%	-8.94%	-6.86%	-13.63%	-9.20%	-4.87%
Avg Days to Max Increase		14	7	11	6	7	14	9	12	7	4	2
2014 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	No		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
High	45.56	43.55	43.36	42.41	40.00	41.51	44.45	43.44	41.90	41.28	39.27	36.24
Low	42.29	40.76	41.51	39.82	37.67	38.11	39.82	40.19	38.60	38.01	35.82	31.86
Close/Last	42.32	42.75	41.90	39.98	38.42	41.23	40.24	41.83	38.68	39.04	36.16	32.04