MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		39	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	20	23	25	29	26	25	21	20	20	21
Exceeded High		16	15	19	20	25	22	21	16	15	10	9
Scenario Percentage		73%	75%	83%	80%	86%	85%	84%	76%	75%	50%	43%
Avg Max Increase		9.41%	8.66%	12.44%	11.70%	9.35%	11.88%	12.35%	21.43%	22.19%	14.81%	4.75%
Max Increase		18.48%	22.21%	48.88%	39.19%	27.07%	38.29%	43.95%	72.36%	81.17%	52.27%	12.56%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	15	19	14	16	16	15	18	18	14	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.08%	-1.85%	-1.74%	-1.50%	-1.79%	-1.90%	-2.10%	-3.11%	-1.13%	-2.04%	-0.83%
Max Decline		-6.64%	-8.22%	-5.70%	-6.71%	-5.99%	-6.90%	-7.70%	-9.75%	-3.74%	-6.00%	-3.72%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	7	9	7	6	7	5	6	7	3	3
2013 Contract Condition					Yes		Yes					Yes
Action					Yes		No					Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		39	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		17	23	22	20	16	19	19	23	25	25	24
Penetrated Low		14	19	18	11	11	16	16	20	23	18	13
Scenario Percentage		82%	83%	82%	55%	69%	84%	84%	87%	92%	72%	54%
Avg Max Decline		6.72%	6.12%	6.37%	7.64%	5.69%	6.22%	8.68%	9.36%	10.81%	6.52%	5.40%
Max Decline		20.00%	24.93%	29.75%	22.24%	15.51%	15.15%	15.07%	20.30%	29.75%	19.67%	12.95%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	15	16	8	15	18	20	22	15	10	7
Avg Max Increase		-4.10%	-2.42%	-2.94%	-2.55%	-2.18%	-2.78%	-2.60%	-2.18%	-3.01%	-2.34%	-0.89%
Max Increase		-12.58%	-8.41%	-11.93%	-8.43%	-4.40%	-6.40%	-8.94%	-6.86%	-13.63%	-9.20%	-4.87%
Avg Days to Max Increase		14	8	11	6	7	16	9	11	7	4	2
2013 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No	No		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High	56.87	53.54	52.35	52.24	53.22	53.92	50.91	50.62	50.14	49.07	47.07	44.88
Low	52.43	51.01	48.72	49.00	49.81	49.17	48.79	47.86	47.85	45.27	42.19	41.47
Close/Last	53.53	51.71	50.80	50.69	53.20	49.19	50.22	48.83	48.21	45.91	42.27	43.89