MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	35	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	19	20	22	26	27	26	26	22	21	19	22
Exceeded High	14	15	18	20	23	22	23	17	16	10	12
Scenario Percentage	74%	75%	82%	77%	85%	85%	88%	77%	76%	53%	55%
Avg Max Increase	8.74%	8.96%	13.31%	11.77%	9.81%	11.91%	11.57%	20.38%	22.30%	16.62%	6.09%
Max Increase	18.48%	22.21%	48.88%	39.19%	27.07%	38.29%	43.95%	72.36%	81.17%	59.11%	12.56%
Avg Days To Max Increase	21	17	18	14	17	16	15	18	18	12	9
Avg Max Decline	-1.05%	-2.08%	-1.47%	-1.46%	-1.80%	-1.92%	-2.21%	-2.94%	-1.11%	-2.67%	-1.64%
Max Decline	-6.64%	-8.22%	-5.70%	-6.71%	-5.99%	-6.90%	-7.70%	-9.75%	-3.74%	-10.83%	-5.08%
Avg Days to Max Decline	3	8	8	7	6	9	7	5	5	4	3
2009 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	35	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	16	23	23	19	18	19	18	22	24	26	23
Penetrated Low	13	19	20	11	12	16	15	19	22	18	16
Scenario Percentage	81%	83%	87%	58%	67%	84%	83%	86%	92%	69%	70%
Avg Max Decline	6.79%	6.26%	6.06%	7.74%	5.14%	6.27%	9.22%	9.48%	10.96%	6.76%	18.41%
Max Decline	20.00%	24.93%	29.75%	22.24%	15.51%	15.15%	15.07%	20.30%	29.75%	19.67%	72.10%
Avg Days To Max Decline	21	15	16	9	14	18	20	22	17	10	13
Avg Max Increase	-4.33%	-2.32%	-2.68%	-2.50%	-1.67%	-2.43%	-2.51%	-1.99%	-2.88%	-2.28%	-2.54%
Max Increase	-12.58%	-8.41%	-11.93%	-8.43%	-4.40%	-6.40%	-8.94%	-6.86%	-13.63%	-9.20%	-11.90%
Avg Days to Max Increase	15	8	11	6	5	15	6	9	7	4	4
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Not Yet	Yes
High	47.25	39.07	34.62	38.40	35.77	34.35	37.88	40.35	40.94	36.47	38.99
Low	33.15	32.33	29.70	33.15	30.60	30.37	33.96	36.65	34.85	32.29	34.75
Close/Last	35.71	34.49	34.62	33.86	31.76	34.23	36.83	39.38	35.39	35.24	34.99