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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for August Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jul 17, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   17 28 24 19 22 26 23 25 18 20 19
Exceeded High   14 20 17 15 18 25 20 18 14 13 7
Scenario Percentage   82% 71% 71% 79% 82% 96% 87% 72% 78% 65% 37%
Avg Max Increase   9.42% 9.62% 8.67% 11.42% 9.91% 8.38% 11.58% 11.44% 13.16% 13.44% 7.44%
Max Increase   22.69% 19.05% 22.56% 35.25% 32.99% 24.04% 35.89% 44.01% 32.58% 49.85% 25.43%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 18 15 17 14 15 14 13 16 15 9
Avg Max Decline   -1.84% -1.54% -2.21% -1.83% -1.99% -1.85% -1.32% -1.48% -2.43% -1.14% -2.13%
Max Decline   -5.26% -6.54% -8.55% -5.74% -6.83% -6.34% -4.25% -4.75% -6.51% -3.17% -6.71%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 6 8 11 8 7 7 3 8 5 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes     Yes   Yes Yes   Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes     Yes   Yes Yes   Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   28 17 20 24 23 19 22 20 27 25 26
Penetrated Low   22 14 16 20 13 15 18 18 23 24 17
Scenario Percentage   79% 82% 80% 83% 57% 79% 82% 90% 85% 96% 65%
Avg Max Decline   6.77% 5.68% 5.78% 5.51% 9.16% 7.22% 6.30% 7.35% 10.51% 10.11% 5.20%
Max Decline   30.98% 16.95% 13.99% 22.89% 19.78% 15.88% 19.12% 14.31% 25.79% 22.64% 14.52%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 21 19 17 16 18 15 19 23 11 9
Avg Max Increase   -2.13% -3.43% -3.22% -2.77% -2.62% -2.95% -3.25% -2.84% -2.97% -3.50% -0.89%
Max Increase   -7.95% -9.37% -14.79% -8.29% -6.49% -10.55% -8.02% -8.49% -8.26% -13.98% -5.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase   6 13 12 12 7 7 13 9 11 6 2
2025 Contract Condition       Yes Yes   Yes     Yes    
Action       Yes No   Yes     Yes    
High 42.89 44.89 45.36 49.12 43.98 47.30 48.48 46.02 51.03 52.72 55.98 56.43
Low 38.72 39.65 41.76 41.56 40.08 40.22 44.42 41.58 44.17 46.67 45.91 52.27
Close/Last 42.44 43.57 45.23 42.48 40.91 46.39 44.47 45.48 48.92 47.11 52.65 56.22

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