MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		44	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		19	27	23	20	23	28	25	26	19	20	18
Exceeded High		16	19	18	16	19	26	21	20	14	13	6
Scenario Percentage		84%	70%	78%	80%	83%	93%	84%	77%	74%	65%	33%
Avg Max Increase		9.35%	9.73%	8.62%	10.15%	10.76%	9.44%	12.28%	11.39%	12.61%	12.24%	6.64%
Max Increase		22.69%	19.05%	22.56%	35.25%	32.99%	32.20%	35.89%	44.01%	32.58%	44.21%	20.71%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	19	15	17	14	15	16	13	15	13	5
Avg Max Decline		-2.18%	-1.60%	-2.10%	-2.09%	-1.90%	-1.63%	-1.71%	-1.58%	-2.05%	-1.12%	-1.16%
Max Decline		-8.77%	-6.54%	-8.55%	-5.74%	-6.83%	-6.34%	-7.63%	-4.75%	-5.91%	-3.17%	-6.24%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	7	8	12	7	6	8	4	7	5	1
2021 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		44	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		25	17	20	22	22	17	20	19	26	25	27
Penetrated Low		21	13	15	19	11	13	16	17	22	23	15
Scenario Percentage		84%	76%	75%	86%	50%	76%	80%	89%	85%	92%	56%
Avg Max Decline		6.60%	5.85%	5.77%	5.35%	8.86%	6.77%	5.79%	7.08%	9.81%	10.21%	4.28%
Max Decline		30.98%	16.95%	13.99%	22.89%	19.78%	15.88%	15.14%	14.31%	20.80%	22.70%	14.38%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	21	19	17	14	16	15	18	24	11	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.10%	-3.29%	-3.06%	-2.81%	-2.60%	-2.33%	-3.34%	-2.24%	-2.81%	-2.43%	-0.38%
Max Increase		-7.95%	-9.37%	-14.79%	-8.29%	-6.49%	-4.69%	-8.02%	-5.44%	-8.26%	-7.91%	-1.81%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	12	12	12	5	5	14	8	11	6	2
2021 Contract Condition			Yes
Action			No
High	34.12	35.41	34.12	37.35	40.49	42.72	48.60	52.79	58.88	66.30	70.32	69.18
Low	30.67	32.34	32.02	32.48	35.79	39.38	41.17	46.24	47.56	57.41	53.73	59.40
Close/Last	33.14	33.42	32.90	36.49	40.25	42.34	47.47	48.79	57.47	62.33	63.42	65.82