MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		41	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		15	26	22	19	23	31	27	27	20	19	18
Exceeded High		12	17	17	15	19	29	23	21	15	13	7
Scenario Percentage		80%	65%	77%	79%	83%	94%	85%	78%	75%	68%	39%
Avg Max Increase		9.58%	9.80%	10.35%	12.81%	12.40%	9.42%	11.57%	12.29%	21.00%	20.26%	10.65%
Max Increase		22.69%	19.05%	41.11%	52.91%	38.42%	32.20%	38.21%	44.01%	74.39%	59.87%	24.41%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	18	16	18	15	15	16	13	17	14	6
Avg Max Decline		-2.25%	-1.67%	-2.29%	-2.27%	-1.85%	-2.08%	-1.82%	-2.04%	-3.11%	-0.88%	-1.11%
Max Decline		-8.77%	-6.54%	-8.55%	-5.74%	-6.83%	-16.60%	-7.63%	-7.97%	-8.97%	-3.76%	-6.24%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	5	9	12	7	6	8	5	5	2	1
2016 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	No	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		41	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		26	17	21	23	22	14	18	18	25	26	27
Penetrated Low		21	14	17	20	9	10	15	17	22	23	16
Scenario Percentage		81%	82%	81%	87%	41%	71%	83%	94%	88%	88%	59%
Avg Max Decline		7.49%	7.72%	7.37%	6.60%	9.76%	5.41%	6.14%	7.92%	10.06%	10.21%	4.06%
Max Decline		30.98%	18.53%	23.96%	29.01%	22.01%	15.88%	15.14%	14.69%	20.80%	22.70%	14.38%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	21	19	18	10	13	17	19	24	10	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.24%	-4.34%	-2.96%	-3.04%	-2.34%	-2.19%	-3.47%	-2.10%	-2.78%	-2.64%	-0.46%
Max Increase		-7.95%	-14.59%	-8.14%	-11.96%	-6.26%	-4.44%	-8.02%	-5.96%	-8.26%	-7.91%	-1.81%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	12	10	12	6	6	15	9	11	6	1
2016 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No					Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	31.45	29.08	30.21	30.26	32.78	31.65	32.63	34.64	35.50	33.93	33.47	31.95
Low	26.74	27.32	28.19	27.77	30.04	29.57	31.04	30.43	33.22	30.90	30.90	29.28
Close/Last	29.10	28.34	29.19	30.07	31.21	31.38	31.20	34.53	33.26	31.94	31.53	30.35