MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		40	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		16	26	21	19	24	30	26	27	20	19	20
Exceeded High		13	18	16	16	19	28	22	20	15	14	8
Scenario Percentage		81%	69%	76%	84%	79%	93%	85%	74%	75%	74%	40%
Avg Max Increase		10.30%	9.53%	10.44%	13.22%	12.46%	9.91%	11.97%	12.34%	22.83%	20.60%	11.25%
Max Increase		22.69%	19.05%	41.11%	52.91%	38.42%	32.20%	38.21%	44.01%	74.39%	59.87%	28.03%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	19	16	19	13	16	15	14	18	15	8
Avg Max Decline		-2.16%	-1.43%	-2.43%	-2.15%	-1.73%	-2.22%	-1.78%	-2.11%	-3.24%	-0.83%	-1.16%
Max Decline		-8.77%	-6.54%	-8.55%	-5.74%	-6.83%	-16.60%	-7.63%	-7.97%	-8.97%	-3.76%	-6.24%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	4	10	11	6	7	8	5	5	2	2
2014 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes		Yes		Yes
Action			No				Yes		No		Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		40	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	17	22	23	21	15	19	18	25	26	25
Penetrated Low		20	14	17	19	9	11	16	16	21	24	17
Scenario Percentage		83%	82%	77%	83%	43%	73%	84%	89%	84%	92%	68%
Avg Max Decline		7.79%	7.72%	7.08%	6.52%	9.76%	5.95%	6.30%	7.97%	10.14%	10.22%	4.99%
Max Decline		30.98%	18.53%	23.96%	29.01%	22.01%	15.88%	15.14%	14.69%	20.80%	24.20%	14.52%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	21	18	17	10	14	17	19	24	11	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.16%	-4.34%	-2.77%	-2.91%	-2.34%	-2.11%	-3.19%	-2.10%	-2.68%	-3.11%	-1.22%
Max Increase		-7.95%	-14.59%	-8.14%	-11.96%	-6.26%	-4.44%	-8.02%	-5.96%	-8.26%	-13.98%	-5.36%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	12	8	12	6	7	14	9	11	7	2
2014 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	No		Yes		Yes		Yes
High	45.97	45.56	43.55	43.34	42.34	39.95	41.88	44.89	43.75	42.14	41.80	39.20
Low	43.06	42.25	40.60	41.50	39.80	37.61	38.07	40.05	40.48	38.47	37.89	35.72
Close/Last	45.24	42.28	42.70	41.82	39.95	38.38	41.64	40.50	42.08	38.61	38.95	36.11