MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		39	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		16	26	22	20	25	30	26	27	20	19	21
Exceeded High		13	19	17	17	20	27	22	20	15	15	9
Scenario Percentage		81%	73%	77%	85%	80%	90%	85%	74%	75%	79%	43%
Avg Max Increase		10.30%	9.53%	10.22%	12.86%	12.05%	9.99%	11.97%	12.34%	22.83%	20.05%	10.82%
Max Increase		22.69%	19.05%	41.11%	52.91%	38.42%	32.20%	38.21%	44.01%	74.39%	59.87%	28.03%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	18	16	19	14	16	15	14	18	15	9
Avg Max Decline		-2.16%	-1.40%	-2.32%	-2.03%	-1.74%	-2.31%	-1.78%	-2.11%	-3.24%	-0.96%	-1.07%
Max Decline		-8.77%	-6.54%	-8.55%	-5.74%	-6.83%	-16.60%	-7.63%	-7.97%	-8.97%	-3.76%	-6.24%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	4	9	12	6	7	8	5	5	3	2
2013 Contract Condition						Yes		Yes
Action						Yes		No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		39	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	17	21	22	20	15	19	18	25	26	24
Penetrated Low		19	14	16	18	9	11	16	16	21	24	16
Scenario Percentage		83%	82%	76%	82%	45%	73%	84%	89%	84%	92%	67%
Avg Max Decline		7.99%	7.72%	6.90%	6.55%	9.76%	5.95%	6.47%	7.97%	9.97%	10.22%	4.93%
Max Decline		30.98%	18.53%	23.96%	29.01%	22.01%	15.88%	15.14%	14.69%	20.80%	24.20%	14.52%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	21	17	16	10	14	17	19	23	11	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.25%	-4.34%	-2.87%	-3.08%	-2.34%	-2.11%	-2.86%	-2.10%	-2.33%	-3.11%	-1.30%
Max Increase		-7.95%	-14.59%	-8.14%	-11.96%	-6.26%	-4.44%	-5.73%	-5.96%	-7.08%	-13.98%	-5.36%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	12	9	12	6	7	15	9	10	7	2
2013 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No	No		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High	57.20	57.74	53.75	52.40	52.50	53.59	54.15	51.13	50.76	50.46	49.50	47.53
Low	53.00	53.00	51.20	48.60	48.96	49.91	49.35	49.00	47.97	48.08	45.64	42.03
Close/Last	56.63	53.84	51.76	50.96	50.69	53.49	49.39	50.34	49.04	48.38	46.29	42.09