MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		38	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		16	26	22	21	25	30	25	27	20	19	21
Exceeded High		13	19	17	18	20	27	22	20	15	15	9
Scenario Percentage		81%	73%	77%	86%	80%	90%	88%	74%	75%	79%	43%
Avg Max Increase		10.30%	9.53%	10.22%	12.25%	12.05%	9.99%	11.97%	12.34%	22.83%	20.05%	10.82%
Max Increase		22.69%	19.05%	41.11%	52.91%	38.42%	32.20%	38.21%	44.01%	74.39%	59.87%	28.03%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	18	16	18	14	16	15	14	18	15	9
Avg Max Decline		-2.16%	-1.40%	-2.32%	-1.99%	-1.75%	-2.31%	-1.78%	-2.11%	-3.24%	-0.96%	-1.07%
Max Decline		-8.77%	-6.54%	-8.55%	-5.74%	-6.83%	-16.60%	-7.63%	-7.97%	-8.97%	-3.76%	-6.24%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	4	9	12	6	7	8	5	5	3	2
2012 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action			No		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		38	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		22	17	21	21	20	15	20	18	25	26	24
Penetrated Low		18	14	16	18	9	11	17	16	21	24	15
Scenario Percentage		82%	82%	76%	86%	45%	73%	85%	89%	84%	92%	63%
Avg Max Decline		7.89%	7.45%	6.90%	6.55%	9.76%	6.28%	6.42%	8.42%	10.01%	9.95%	5.15%
Max Decline		30.98%	18.53%	23.96%	29.01%	22.01%	15.88%	15.14%	14.69%	20.80%	24.20%	14.52%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	21	17	16	10	14	18	19	22	11	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.38%	-4.25%	-2.87%	-3.08%	-2.34%	-1.94%	-2.69%	-1.98%	-2.21%	-3.08%	-1.27%
Max Increase		-7.95%	-14.59%	-8.14%	-11.96%	-6.26%	-4.44%	-5.73%	-5.96%	-7.08%	-13.98%	-5.36%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	13	9	12	6	5	14	8	9	7	2
2012 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes		No			Yes	Yes
High	59.28	59.39	54.86	53.89	53.12	54.25	55.60	56.33	57.98	55.68	52.57	55.19
Low	54.52	50.80	49.85	49.57	49.56	51.00	51.88	53.47	54.98	48.79	47.95	51.33
Close/Last	59.28	50.82	52.57	50.54	53.10	51.87	54.97	55.70	55.23	49.42	52.39	52.55