MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years	35	42	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	15	24	21	20	26	28	25	27	21	20	19
Exceeded High	12	18	16	17	20	25	22	21	16	15	9
Scenario Percentage	80%	75%	76%	85%	77%	89%	88%	78%	76%	75%	47%
Avg Max Increase	9.27%	9.11%	10.73%	13.34%	12.21%	10.46%	11.98%	11.82%	21.65%	21.22%	11.42%
Max Increase	18.96%	19.05%	41.11%	52.91%	38.42%	32.20%	38.21%	44.01%	74.39%	59.87%	25.43%
Avg Days To Max Increase	21	18	18	17	14	17	16	15	17	15	9
Avg Max Decline	-2.07%	-1.31%	-2.17%	-1.61%	-1.75%	-2.35%	-1.81%	-2.36%	-3.05%	-0.93%	-1.17%
Max Decline	-8.77%	-6.54%	-8.55%	-5.74%	-6.83%	-16.60%	-7.63%	-7.97%	-8.97%	-3.76%	-6.24%
Avg Days to Max Decline	7	4	8	10	6	7	8	7	5	3	2
2009 Contract Condition				Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years	35	42	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	20	18	21	23	19	17	20	18	24	25	26
Penetrated Low	17	15	16	20	10	12	17	16	20	22	18
Scenario Percentage	85%	83%	76%	87%	53%	71%	85%	89%	83%	88%	69%
Avg Max Decline	8.21%	7.33%	7.10%	6.26%	8.98%	5.73%	7.14%	8.59%	10.22%	10.45%	13.06%
Max Decline	30.98%	18.53%	23.96%	29.01%	22.01%	15.88%	17.18%	14.69%	20.80%	24.20%	54.14%
Avg Days To Max Decline	17	21	17	16	10	14	18	19	23	11	14
Avg Max Increase	-2.06%	-3.98%	-2.76%	-2.78%	-2.17%	-1.82%	-2.47%	-2.14%	-2.16%	-2.48%	-3.93%
Max Increase	-7.79%	-14.59%	-8.14%	-11.96%	-6.26%	-4.44%	-5.73%	-5.96%	-7.08%	-7.91%	-10.72%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	13	9	12	5	5	14	9	9	6	-34
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Not Yet
High	54.90	47.10	38.85	34.45	38.22	35.79	34.15	37.81	40.34	40.77	36.30
Low	45.74	32.86	32.11	29.50	33.18	30.46	30.00	33.82	36.46	34.69	32.14
Close/Last	46.52	35.52	34.30	34.45	33.68	31.60	34.08	36.68	39.21	35.22	35.06