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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jul 17, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   24 16 28 23 18 19 26 22 26 16 20
Exceeded High   17 15 20 17 14 16 25 19 20 12 12
Scenario Percentage   71% 94% 71% 74% 78% 84% 96% 86% 77% 75% 60%
Avg Max Increase   6.38% 10.08% 10.36% 8.91% 12.11% 10.95% 8.72% 12.22% 10.79% 10.49% 6.79%
Max Increase   25.86% 22.72% 21.10% 22.63% 34.71% 33.75% 29.90% 38.87% 43.99% 31.88% 21.07%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 17 18 14 18 14 16 16 12 11 9
Avg Max Decline   -1.42% -2.36% -1.47% -2.48% -2.06% -2.61% -2.10% -2.01% -1.94% -2.46% -0.84%
Max Decline   -6.87% -5.45% -4.94% -8.73% -5.88% -6.99% -6.87% -4.49% -6.60% -6.63% -2.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 6 7 9 10 11 7 8 5 8 2
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes     Yes   Yes Yes   Yes
Action     Yes Yes     Yes   Yes Yes   Not Yet
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 29 17 22 27 25 19 23 19 28 25
Penetrated Low   14 22 15 17 20 15 15 18 18 24 17
Scenario Percentage   67% 76% 88% 77% 74% 60% 79% 78% 95% 86% 68%
Avg Max Decline   8.52% 7.90% 6.41% 6.20% 6.34% 8.86% 6.80% 6.88% 7.53% 7.51% 5.79%
Max Decline   41.85% 32.33% 17.27% 14.31% 23.48% 20.19% 15.36% 19.94% 14.82% 24.35% 15.70%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 14 23 18 16 15 17 16 20 13 9
Avg Max Increase   -1.50% -1.58% -3.99% -3.47% -2.87% -2.60% -3.14% -3.46% -2.89% -2.89% -1.40%
Max Increase   -5.98% -7.02% -9.65% -15.13% -8.36% -6.52% -10.33% -8.17% -8.63% -7.08% -7.65%
Avg Days to Max Increase   5 5 11 12 11 7 5 13 8 10 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes Yes   Yes     Yes  
Action   No     Yes No   Yes     Yes  
High 48.39 42.99 45.10 45.60 49.46 44.15 47.61 48.69 45.93 51.13 52.62 55.81
Low 41.41 38.59 39.60 41.98 41.63 40.11 40.25 44.45 41.54 44.25 46.43 45.74
Close/Last 42.55 42.52 43.75 45.44 42.60 40.94 46.70 44.51 45.39 48.97 46.89 52.51

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