MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	18	27	23	20	20	28	21	26	17	20
Exceeded High		19	16	18	18	15	17	26	19	20	12	12
Scenario Percentage		79%	89%	67%	78%	75%	85%	93%	90%	77%	71%	60%
Avg Max Increase		6.88%	9.78%	10.59%	8.91%	12.46%	11.04%	9.44%	12.14%	10.62%	11.59%	6.95%
Max Increase		25.86%	22.72%	21.10%	22.63%	34.71%	33.75%	29.90%	38.87%	43.99%	31.88%	21.07%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	19	19	15	19	14	16	17	13	11	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.41%	-2.56%	-1.53%	-2.36%	-2.02%	-2.33%	-2.00%	-2.29%	-1.84%	-2.15%	-0.92%
Max Decline		-6.87%	-8.75%	-4.94%	-8.73%	-5.88%	-6.99%	-6.87%	-7.81%	-5.23%	-6.10%	-2.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	6	8	9	10	10	7	8	4	7	2
2022 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				No		Yes	Yes	Yes		No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	27	18	22	25	24	17	24	19	27	25
Penetrated Low		15	21	15	16	20	13	13	19	17	24	17
Scenario Percentage		71%	78%	83%	73%	80%	54%	76%	79%	89%	89%	68%
Avg Max Decline		8.14%	7.78%	6.35%	6.22%	6.14%	8.53%	6.89%	6.17%	7.27%	7.48%	5.79%
Max Decline		41.85%	32.33%	17.27%	14.31%	23.48%	20.19%	15.92%	15.53%	14.82%	24.35%	15.70%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	15	23	18	15	14	17	15	18	13	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.55%	-1.51%	-3.88%	-3.46%	-2.77%	-2.52%	-2.54%	-3.28%	-2.26%	-2.87%	-1.40%
Max Increase		-5.98%	-7.02%	-9.65%	-15.13%	-8.36%	-6.52%	-4.92%	-8.17%	-5.55%	-7.08%	-7.65%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	5	11	12	11	5	5	13	7	10	2
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No		Yes				Yes		Yes	Yes
High	61.77	61.21	59.02	61.23	59.86	57.99	66.15	73.96	75.15	87.65	84.64	83.44
Low	55.23	55.22	54.23	56.49	54.54	51.27	56.31	62.66	68.44	67.52	77.81	67.00
Close/Last	59.41	57.85	57.45	59.09	54.96	56.51	64.40	70.79	68.64	84.18	77.92	69.93