MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		25	18	27	23	19	20	28	22	26	18	20
Exceeded High		20	16	19	18	14	17	26	20	21	12	12
Scenario Percentage		80%	89%	70%	78%	74%	85%	93%	91%	81%	67%	60%
Avg Max Increase		7.15%	9.78%	10.12%	8.91%	11.14%	11.69%	9.80%	12.31%	10.59%	11.59%	6.95%
Max Increase		25.86%	22.72%	21.10%	22.63%	34.71%	33.75%	33.39%	38.87%	43.99%	31.88%	21.07%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	19	18	15	18	15	15	17	13	11	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.32%	-2.56%	-1.52%	-2.36%	-2.14%	-2.34%	-1.84%	-2.26%	-1.78%	-2.15%	-0.92%
Max Decline		-6.87%	-8.75%	-4.94%	-8.73%	-5.88%	-6.99%	-6.87%	-7.81%	-5.23%	-6.10%	-2.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	6	8	9	10	10	5	9	4	7	2
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	27	18	22	26	24	17	23	19	26	25
Penetrated Low		14	22	15	16	21	13	13	18	17	23	17
Scenario Percentage		70%	81%	83%	73%	81%	54%	76%	78%	89%	88%	68%
Avg Max Decline		8.27%	7.75%	6.35%	6.00%	5.98%	8.53%	6.89%	6.43%	7.27%	6.75%	6.11%
Max Decline		41.85%	32.33%	17.27%	14.31%	23.48%	20.19%	15.92%	15.53%	14.82%	15.75%	21.26%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	15	23	17	15	14	17	16	18	13	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.51%	-1.61%	-3.88%	-3.35%	-2.66%	-2.52%	-2.54%	-3.36%	-2.26%	-2.69%	-1.10%
Max Increase		-5.98%	-7.02%	-9.65%	-15.13%	-8.36%	-6.52%	-4.92%	-8.17%	-5.55%	-6.95%	-7.65%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	5	11	12	10	5	5	14	7	10	3
2021 Contract Condition				Yes								Yes
Action				No								Not Yet
High	31.54	34.26	35.69	34.29	37.99	41.15	43.72	49.95	54.63	63.39	70.49	73.74
Low	29.12	30.74	32.39	32.01	32.65	36.18	40.13	42.02	47.65	49.15	61.76	55.49
Close/Last	31.23	33.25	33.48	33.07	36.92	40.94	43.28	48.80	50.76	62.39	65.79	65.16