MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	17	26	23	18	19	29	22	26	18	21
Exceeded High		18	15	18	18	13	16	27	20	21	12	14
Scenario Percentage		78%	88%	69%	78%	72%	84%	93%	91%	81%	67%	67%
Avg Max Increase		7.04%	9.45%	9.95%	10.21%	14.35%	11.87%	9.14%	10.43%	10.73%	15.27%	9.06%
Max Increase		25.86%	22.72%	21.10%	41.88%	55.06%	33.75%	33.39%	34.40%	43.99%	33.88%	18.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	19	17	15	20	16	15	16	14	11	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.34%	-3.11%	-1.47%	-2.54%	-2.36%	-2.33%	-2.42%	-2.27%	-2.19%	-2.54%	-1.09%
Max Decline		-6.87%	-9.19%	-4.94%	-8.73%	-5.88%	-6.99%	-17.40%	-7.81%	-9.65%	-6.93%	-3.49%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	6	6	9	10	10	7	8	4	4	2
2018 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes							Yes
Action		Yes		Yes							Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	28	19	22	27	25	16	23	19	26	24
Penetrated Low		14	23	17	17	23	13	12	19	18	24	16
Scenario Percentage		70%	82%	89%	77%	85%	52%	75%	83%	95%	92%	67%
Avg Max Decline		8.69%	8.31%	7.84%	7.56%	7.00%	8.86%	5.83%	6.55%	7.44%	6.51%	5.84%
Max Decline		41.85%	32.33%	17.99%	24.03%	29.58%	22.80%	15.92%	15.53%	14.82%	14.91%	20.32%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	15	21	17	16	13	15	16	18	12	7
Avg Max Increase		-2.25%	-1.66%	-4.41%	-2.88%	-3.14%	-2.19%	-2.50%	-3.27%	-2.27%	-2.61%	-1.16%
Max Increase		-10.83%	-7.02%	-13.95%	-7.85%	-12.52%	-5.61%	-4.37%	-8.17%	-5.55%	-6.88%	-7.65%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	6	11	11	10	6	5	14	9	8	3
2018 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Not Yet
High	35.96	36.02	36.69	35.89	36.22	34.64	34.40	33.71	33.09	33.00	32.05	31.50
Low	32.96	33.50	33.49	33.14	34.23	32.92	32.50	31.81	31.60	30.55	30.15	27.79
Close/Last	35.59	35.63	33.63	35.48	34.44	33.62	33.48	32.43	32.13	30.62	31.12	29.12