MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	17	25	22	18	20	31	24	27	19	20
Exceeded High		16	14	16	17	13	17	29	22	22	13	13
Scenario Percentage		76%	82%	64%	77%	72%	85%	94%	92%	81%	68%	65%
Avg Max Increase		7.08%	9.32%	10.56%	10.61%	14.35%	13.48%	9.57%	11.43%	11.61%	15.02%	10.38%
Max Increase		25.86%	22.72%	21.10%	41.88%	55.06%	39.33%	33.39%	38.07%	43.99%	33.88%	21.07%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	18	18	15	20	16	15	16	14	12	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.33%	-3.17%	-1.31%	-2.66%	-2.36%	-2.24%	-2.31%	-2.32%	-2.21%	-3.44%	-0.96%
Max Decline		-6.87%	-9.19%	-4.94%	-8.73%	-5.88%	-6.99%	-17.40%	-7.81%	-9.65%	-9.76%	-3.49%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	6	6	10	10	10	7	9	4	5	2
2016 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	No	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	28	20	23	27	24	14	21	18	25	25
Penetrated Low		15	22	17	18	22	11	10	17	17	23	16
Scenario Percentage		71%	79%	85%	78%	81%	46%	71%	81%	94%	92%	64%
Avg Max Decline		8.51%	8.62%	7.84%	7.54%	7.10%	9.22%	5.52%	6.79%	8.00%	6.93%	6.17%
Max Decline		41.85%	32.33%	17.99%	24.03%	29.58%	22.80%	15.92%	15.53%	14.82%	15.75%	21.26%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	16	21	17	15	10	14	17	19	13	9
Avg Max Increase		-2.43%	-1.73%	-4.41%	-3.18%	-2.88%	-2.24%	-2.55%	-3.44%	-2.15%	-2.71%	-1.16%
Max Increase		-10.83%	-7.02%	-13.95%	-7.85%	-12.52%	-5.61%	-4.37%	-8.17%	-5.99%	-6.95%	-7.65%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	6	11	11	10	5	6	15	9	10	3
2016 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes					Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No	No					Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	34.06	31.55	29.01	30.18	30.23	32.85	31.63	32.64	34.56	35.43	33.84	33.33
Low	30.87	26.61	27.18	28.05	27.69	29.80	29.47	30.94	30.33	33.10	30.79	30.74
Close/Last	30.96	29.03	28.26	29.13	30.02	31.18	31.33	31.11	34.44	33.14	31.82	31.38