MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		41	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	19	25	22	19	22	30	23	27	19	19
Exceeded High		17	16	18	17	15	18	27	21	22	13	14
Scenario Percentage		81%	84%	72%	77%	79%	82%	90%	91%	81%	68%	74%
Avg Max Increase		7.57%	10.85%	10.14%	10.45%	14.21%	13.17%	10.18%	11.84%	11.18%	15.74%	9.20%
Max Increase		25.86%	23.41%	21.10%	41.88%	55.06%	39.33%	33.39%	38.07%	43.99%	33.88%	18.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	18	18	15	20	14	16	16	14	12	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.32%	-3.02%	-1.17%	-2.68%	-2.19%	-2.07%	-2.55%	-2.29%	-2.18%	-3.23%	-0.90%
Max Decline		-6.87%	-9.19%	-2.78%	-8.73%	-5.88%	-6.99%	-17.40%	-7.81%	-9.65%	-9.76%	-3.49%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	6	5	10	10	8	7	8	4	4	2
2013 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes		Yes
Action		Yes					Yes		No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		41	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	26	20	23	26	22	15	22	18	25	26
Penetrated Low		14	22	17	17	20	11	11	18	16	22	15
Scenario Percentage		70%	85%	85%	74%	77%	50%	73%	82%	89%	88%	58%
Avg Max Decline		8.97%	8.45%	7.84%	7.16%	7.08%	9.22%	6.12%	6.97%	8.05%	6.76%	5.87%
Max Decline		41.85%	32.33%	17.99%	24.03%	29.58%	22.80%	15.92%	15.53%	14.82%	14.91%	20.32%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	16	21	15	14	10	15	18	19	13	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.47%	-1.79%	-4.41%	-3.09%	-2.89%	-2.24%	-2.42%	-2.96%	-2.15%	-2.27%	-1.15%
Max Increase		-10.83%	-7.02%	-13.95%	-7.85%	-12.52%	-5.61%	-4.37%	-7.14%	-5.99%	-6.49%	-7.65%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	6	11	9	11	5	7	15	8	7	3
2013 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	No	No		Yes		Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	56.84	57.72	58.42	53.84	52.39	52.59	53.65	54.26	51.24	50.73	50.61	49.59
Low	52.75	52.83	52.87	51.11	48.31	48.87	49.85	49.36	48.97	48.08	48.24	45.88
Close/Last	54.30	57.02	53.88	51.69	51.01	50.62	53.56	49.42	50.35	49.22	48.38	46.42