MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		40	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	19	25	22	20	22	30	22	27	19	19
Exceeded High		16	16	18	17	16	18	27	21	22	13	14
Scenario Percentage		80%	84%	72%	77%	80%	82%	90%	95%	81%	68%	74%
Avg Max Increase		7.89%	10.85%	10.14%	10.45%	13.42%	13.17%	10.18%	11.84%	11.18%	15.74%	9.20%
Max Increase		25.86%	23.41%	21.10%	41.88%	55.06%	39.33%	33.39%	38.07%	43.99%	33.88%	18.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	18	18	15	19	15	16	16	14	12	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.43%	-3.02%	-1.17%	-2.68%	-2.16%	-2.09%	-2.55%	-2.29%	-2.18%	-3.23%	-0.90%
Max Decline		-6.87%	-9.19%	-2.78%	-8.73%	-5.88%	-6.99%	-17.40%	-7.81%	-9.65%	-9.76%	-3.49%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	6	5	10	10	9	7	8	4	4	2
2012 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes		No		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		40	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	26	20	23	25	22	15	23	18	25	26
Penetrated Low		14	22	17	17	20	11	11	19	16	22	16
Scenario Percentage		70%	85%	85%	74%	80%	50%	73%	83%	89%	88%	62%
Avg Max Decline		8.97%	8.18%	7.61%	7.16%	7.08%	9.22%	6.48%	6.87%	8.59%	7.23%	5.83%
Max Decline		41.85%	32.33%	17.99%	24.03%	29.58%	22.80%	15.92%	15.53%	15.41%	15.36%	20.32%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	17	22	15	14	10	14	18	19	12	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.47%	-1.88%	-4.39%	-3.09%	-2.89%	-2.24%	-2.24%	-2.81%	-2.03%	-2.15%	-1.20%
Max Increase		-10.83%	-7.02%	-13.95%	-7.85%	-12.52%	-5.61%	-4.37%	-7.14%	-5.99%	-6.49%	-7.65%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	6	11	9	11	5	5	15	7	7	3
2012 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		No		No			Yes	Yes
High	59.79	59.40	59.50	54.88	53.84	53.27	54.42	55.65	56.21	57.80	55.49	52.25
Low	56.45	54.12	50.76	49.20	49.42	49.42	50.87	51.67	53.30	54.78	48.55	47.76
Close/Last	57.22	59.33	50.90	52.49	50.46	53.05	51.72	54.87	55.51	55.05	49.20	52.21