MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	35	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	19	20	25	21	17	24	28	22	26	19	20
Exceeded High	15	17	18	16	13	18	25	20	21	12	15
Scenario Percentage	79%	85%	72%	76%	76%	75%	89%	91%	81%	63%	75%
Avg Max Increase	8.40%	10.08%	9.36%	10.44%	13.39%	11.67%	10.40%	11.50%	10.53%	16.05%	8.73%
Max Increase	25.86%	23.41%	21.10%	41.88%	55.06%	39.33%	33.39%	38.07%	43.99%	33.88%	18.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase	16	18	18	17	18	15	18	17	15	12	8
Avg Max Decline	-1.32%	-2.64%	-1.04%	-2.82%	-1.89%	-2.10%	-2.81%	-2.36%	-2.04%	-3.36%	-0.82%
Max Decline	-6.87%	-9.19%	-2.78%	-9.32%	-5.88%	-6.99%	-17.40%	-7.81%	-9.65%	-9.76%	-3.49%
Avg Days to Max Decline	5	6	4	11	9	9	8	9	5	4	2
2007 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	35	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	16	24	20	24	28	20	17	23	19	25	25
Penetrated Low	12	21	17	18	22	10	12	19	16	21	19
Scenario Percentage	75%	88%	85%	75%	79%	50%	71%	83%	84%	84%	76%
Avg Max Decline	6.54%	7.21%	6.93%	6.56%	6.60%	8.81%	6.03%	6.76%	8.84%	7.37%	13.99%
Max Decline	12.85%	20.55%	17.99%	24.03%	29.58%	22.80%	15.92%	15.53%	15.41%	15.36%	40.90%
Avg Days To Max Decline	18	18	23	16	15	12	15	19	19	12	12
Avg Max Increase	-3.02%	-1.88%	-3.84%	-3.04%	-2.59%	-1.69%	-2.03%	-2.40%	-2.19%	-2.14%	-1.72%
Max Increase	-10.83%	-7.02%	-13.95%	-7.85%	-12.52%	-4.17%	-4.37%	-7.14%	-5.99%	-6.49%	-7.65%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	6	12	9	11	5	6	14	8	6	3
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes			Yes	No
High	29.35	27.20	29.00	30.86	30.85	30.87	32.14	33.61	34.04	36.19	37.57
Low	26.45	25.32	25.06	28.20	28.90	28.82	29.75	30.15	31.57	32.77	34.35
Close/Last	27.25	25.82	28.14	30.72	30.69	30.26	31.15	32.92	33.77	35.71	36.63