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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jul 09, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   22 19 23 17 26 23 19 18 25 23 26
Exceeded High   15 13 16 16 19 16 15 16 24 19 19
Scenario Percentage   68% 68% 70% 94% 73% 70% 79% 89% 96% 83% 73%
Avg Max Increase   12.34% 9.29% 6.98% 10.25% 10.00% 9.55% 12.50% 11.91% 9.46% 10.55% 5.30%
Max Increase   63.86% 47.53% 25.97% 22.49% 19.19% 22.80% 34.54% 33.72% 41.95% 36.66% 19.49%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 16 17 18 17 14 18 15 16 11 9
Avg Max Decline   -1.67% -3.47% -2.00% -2.45% -1.68% -2.26% -2.82% -2.71% -2.25% -1.84% -1.44%
Max Decline   -6.51% -10.23% -9.28% -5.38% -5.15% -8.98% -9.56% -7.42% -7.18% -4.92% -4.35%
Avg Days to Max Decline   10 9 8 5 8 10 12 10 6 6 3
2025 Contract Condition         Yes Yes     Yes   Yes Yes
Action         Yes Yes     Yes   Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   23 25 21 28 19 22 25 27 20 22 19
Penetrated Low   20 22 14 22 15 17 20 17 16 17 13
Scenario Percentage   87% 88% 67% 79% 79% 77% 80% 63% 80% 77% 68%
Avg Max Decline   9.23% 7.21% 8.68% 8.20% 6.95% 6.42% 6.23% 8.58% 6.98% 4.72% 3.27%
Max Decline   17.08% 25.89% 42.37% 31.91% 17.43% 14.37% 23.97% 20.69% 16.32% 10.09% 5.99%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 16 18 15 21 19 17 14 18 10 9
Avg Max Increase   -2.77% -2.70% -1.62% -1.87% -3.49% -3.68% -3.13% -2.78% -3.37% -2.92% -1.74%
Max Increase   -11.51% -12.73% -6.51% -7.82% -9.80% -15.27% -8.58% -6.70% -10.20% -8.59% -5.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 9 4 6 9 12 11 7 6 9 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes   Yes    
Action   Yes Yes No     Yes No   Yes    
High 47.83 46.26 48.41 42.88 45.05 45.48 49.46 43.98 47.48 48.55 45.43 50.70
Low 44.30 43.32 41.31 38.38 39.34 41.80 41.39 39.86 39.99 44.05 41.08 43.83
Close/Last 46.49 44.07 42.49 42.40 43.65 45.31 42.37 40.69 46.52 44.12 44.89 48.58

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