MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Oct 06, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	18	24	18	26	23	20	19	26	22	25
Exceeded High		14	13	18	16	18	16	16	17	24	18	14
Scenario Percentage		64%	72%	75%	89%	69%	70%	80%	89%	92%	82%	56%
Avg Max Increase		12.29%	9.29%	7.43%	10.01%	10.05%	9.55%	12.77%	11.94%	9.46%	10.07%	5.77%
Max Increase		63.86%	47.53%	25.97%	22.49%	19.19%	22.80%	34.54%	33.72%	41.95%	35.28%	19.49%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	16	18	19	18	14	18	14	16	10	6
Avg Max Decline		-1.77%	-3.47%	-1.91%	-2.23%	-1.70%	-2.26%	-2.74%	-2.42%	-2.25%	-1.81%	-1.01%
Max Decline		-6.51%	-10.23%	-9.28%	-5.38%	-5.15%	-8.98%	-9.56%	-7.42%	-7.18%	-4.92%	-3.62%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	9	7	5	8	10	11	10	6	6	1
2023 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	26	20	27	19	22	24	26	19	23	20
Penetrated Low		20	22	14	21	15	16	20	16	15	18	12
Scenario Percentage		87%	85%	70%	78%	79%	73%	83%	62%	79%	78%	60%
Avg Max Decline		8.88%	6.90%	8.68%	8.08%	6.90%	6.45%	6.06%	8.80%	7.63%	4.64%	2.93%
Max Decline		17.08%	25.89%	42.37%	31.91%	17.43%	14.37%	23.97%	20.69%	16.61%	9.46%	5.99%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	16	18	15	21	18	17	14	18	12	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.31%	-2.71%	-1.62%	-1.81%	-3.35%	-3.68%	-3.14%	-2.64%	-2.87%	-2.50%	-1.23%
Max Increase		-11.51%	-12.73%	-6.51%	-7.82%	-9.80%	-15.27%	-8.58%	-6.70%	-5.96%	-5.66%	-5.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	9	4	6	9	12	12	7	5	6	1
2023 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			No			No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	73.91	76.73	64.79	66.36	64.94	66.82	71.52	68.31	65.07	63.83	62.15	57.40
Low	68.97	62.60	53.83	59.37	58.64	59.30	66.23	58.22	60.09	58.70	51.28	50.24
Close/Last	72.98	63.54	64.23	64.64	59.44	66.44	68.78	63.94	62.49	60.04	55.49	51.61