MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	17	24	19	25	23	20	19	27	24	26
Exceeded High		15	12	18	17	18	17	15	17	25	20	18
Scenario Percentage		68%	71%	75%	89%	72%	74%	75%	89%	93%	83%	69%
Avg Max Increase		12.78%	9.79%	7.91%	10.05%	9.69%	9.55%	11.50%	12.38%	10.56%	10.38%	5.24%
Max Increase		63.86%	47.53%	25.97%	22.49%	19.19%	22.80%	34.54%	33.72%	41.95%	36.66%	19.49%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	16	17	20	17	13	17	15	16	12	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.77%	-3.13%	-1.38%	-2.64%	-1.76%	-2.14%	-2.90%	-2.41%	-1.97%	-2.07%	-1.33%
Max Decline		-6.51%	-10.23%	-7.06%	-9.18%	-5.15%	-8.98%	-9.56%	-7.42%	-7.18%	-7.65%	-4.35%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	9	6	6	8	9	12	9	4	6	3
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	27	20	26	20	22	24	26	18	21	19
Penetrated Low		20	22	14	22	15	16	21	15	14	16	12
Scenario Percentage		87%	81%	70%	85%	75%	73%	88%	58%	78%	76%	63%
Avg Max Decline		9.35%	7.03%	8.39%	8.05%	6.90%	6.20%	5.91%	8.19%	7.00%	4.54%	3.16%
Max Decline		24.55%	25.89%	42.37%	31.91%	17.43%	14.37%	23.97%	20.69%	16.61%	8.77%	5.99%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	15	18	15	21	18	17	13	18	11	7
Avg Max Increase		-2.09%	-2.62%	-2.22%	-1.89%	-3.35%	-3.58%	-3.01%	-2.68%	-2.82%	-2.75%	-1.23%
Max Increase		-11.51%	-12.73%	-10.22%	-7.82%	-9.80%	-15.27%	-8.58%	-6.70%	-5.96%	-8.59%	-5.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	9	6	6	9	12	12	6	5	8	1
2021 Contract Condition						Yes
Action						No
High	29.05	30.01	31.47	34.22	35.69	34.30	38.28	41.69	44.61	50.95	58.25	70.89
Low	27.05	28.31	28.97	30.65	32.31	31.86	32.62	36.28	40.53	42.64	48.62	50.96
Close/Last	28.65	29.29	31.14	33.20	33.36	33.12	37.06	41.52	43.91	49.94	52.92	68.46