MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	18	22	18	24	22	18	18	27	24	25
Exceeded High		14	13	16	16	17	16	13	16	24	20	17
Scenario Percentage		67%	72%	73%	89%	71%	73%	72%	89%	89%	83%	68%
Avg Max Increase		15.32%	10.73%	7.87%	9.44%	9.47%	8.87%	11.33%	11.12%	9.25%	8.65%	5.27%
Max Increase		63.86%	47.53%	25.97%	22.49%	19.19%	22.80%	34.54%	33.72%	33.57%	30.11%	19.49%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	16	16	19	16	12	18	15	15	12	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.85%	-4.15%	-1.41%	-2.62%	-1.71%	-2.14%	-3.24%	-2.38%	-1.94%	-2.05%	-1.21%
Max Decline		-6.51%	-17.57%	-7.06%	-9.18%	-5.15%	-8.98%	-9.56%	-7.42%	-7.18%	-7.65%	-4.35%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	11	6	6	6	10	12	10	4	6	3
2019 Contract Condition					Yes				Yes
Action					Yes				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	26	22	27	21	23	26	27	18	21	20
Penetrated Low		20	21	16	23	17	17	23	15	14	16	15
Scenario Percentage		87%	81%	73%	85%	81%	74%	88%	56%	78%	76%	75%
Avg Max Decline		9.35%	7.31%	8.48%	8.65%	8.06%	7.70%	6.92%	8.51%	6.29%	4.27%	3.84%
Max Decline		24.55%	25.89%	42.37%	31.91%	18.39%	23.36%	29.40%	23.25%	16.61%	8.22%	13.64%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	16	18	16	21	18	18	12	16	11	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.09%	-2.67%	-2.82%	-1.93%	-4.26%	-3.27%	-3.53%	-2.35%	-2.70%	-3.05%	-1.39%
Max Increase		-11.51%	-12.73%	-11.87%	-7.82%	-16.31%	-9.12%	-13.34%	-5.98%	-5.96%	-8.59%	-5.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	9	6	6	9	11	12	6	5	10	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	No	No		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	33.66	33.06	30.67	30.12	30.28	30.76	29.35	29.77	30.80	31.32	30.64	29.40
Low	31.90	29.54	28.86	28.92	28.01	28.52	27.70	27.81	28.11	29.94	28.34	27.20
Close/Last	32.73	30.64	30.16	29.56	29.80	28.77	28.56	28.12	30.48	30.25	28.36	27.58