MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	19	21	17	23	22	19	19	30	26	27
Exceeded High		14	14	14	15	15	16	14	17	27	22	14
Scenario Percentage		67%	74%	67%	88%	65%	73%	74%	89%	90%	85%	52%
Avg Max Increase		19.51%	11.87%	8.05%	9.55%	10.03%	11.57%	14.94%	14.10%	9.82%	8.76%	6.05%
Max Increase		63.86%	47.53%	25.97%	22.49%	19.19%	46.74%	61.85%	41.38%	33.57%	30.11%	19.49%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	17	16	19	18	14	19	16	16	11	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.10%	-4.06%	-1.38%	-3.26%	-1.57%	-2.48%	-3.14%	-2.30%	-2.49%	-2.13%	-0.84%
Max Decline		-3.62%	-17.57%	-7.06%	-10.08%	-5.15%	-8.98%	-9.56%	-7.42%	-19.15%	-7.65%	-3.62%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	10	6	6	6	11	11	9	5	6	1
2016 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		No				Yes	Yes	No	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		22	25	23	28	21	23	25	26	15	19	18
Penetrated Low		19	21	17	23	17	18	22	13	11	14	12
Scenario Percentage		86%	84%	74%	82%	81%	78%	88%	50%	73%	74%	67%
Avg Max Decline		9.53%	7.02%	8.76%	8.93%	8.21%	7.71%	7.03%	8.74%	5.71%	4.48%	3.65%
Max Decline		24.55%	25.89%	42.37%	31.91%	18.39%	23.36%	29.40%	23.25%	16.61%	13.47%	13.64%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	16	18	16	19	18	18	10	15	12	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.20%	-3.14%	-2.87%	-1.93%	-4.16%	-3.58%	-3.27%	-2.41%	-2.89%	-2.56%	-1.11%
Max Increase		-11.51%	-12.73%	-11.87%	-7.82%	-16.31%	-9.12%	-13.34%	-5.98%	-5.96%	-5.83%	-5.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	9	6	6	9	11	12	6	6	7	1
2016 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	No	No					Yes		Yes
High	34.26	35.30	34.04	31.42	28.86	30.03	30.06	32.77	31.42	32.43	34.37	35.14
Low	32.18	32.90	30.75	26.41	26.96	27.86	27.47	29.65	29.22	30.70	30.09	32.84
Close/Last	33.44	34.00	30.87	28.86	28.09	28.96	29.85	30.96	31.09	30.87	34.22	32.88