MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	21	21	18	23	21	19	20	29	26	27
Exceeded High		16	16	14	16	16	15	15	17	26	22	17
Scenario Percentage		76%	76%	67%	89%	70%	71%	79%	85%	90%	85%	63%
Avg Max Increase		17.85%	11.34%	8.05%	11.10%	9.60%	11.68%	15.63%	14.71%	10.49%	9.78%	5.43%
Max Increase		63.86%	47.53%	25.97%	23.58%	19.19%	46.74%	61.85%	41.38%	33.57%	30.11%	19.49%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	18	16	18	18	14	19	14	16	11	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.15%	-3.90%	-1.38%	-3.11%	-1.42%	-2.60%	-2.99%	-2.15%	-2.71%	-1.97%	-1.21%
Max Decline		-3.62%	-17.57%	-7.06%	-10.08%	-3.74%	-8.98%	-9.56%	-7.42%	-19.15%	-7.65%	-4.35%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	11	6	4	5	11	11	7	6	5	3
2014 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes				Yes		Yes
Action				No		No				Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		22	23	22	27	21	24	25	25	16	19	18
Penetrated Low		19	19	16	23	17	18	21	13	12	15	13
Scenario Percentage		86%	83%	73%	85%	81%	75%	84%	52%	75%	79%	72%
Avg Max Decline		9.53%	6.35%	9.19%	8.93%	8.21%	7.48%	6.95%	8.74%	6.24%	4.96%	3.77%
Max Decline		24.55%	25.89%	42.37%	31.91%	18.39%	23.36%	29.40%	23.25%	16.61%	13.47%	13.64%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	16	18	16	19	17	17	10	15	12	9
Avg Max Increase		-2.20%	-3.37%	-2.93%	-1.93%	-4.16%	-3.42%	-3.16%	-2.41%	-2.78%	-2.77%	-1.55%
Max Increase		-11.51%	-12.73%	-11.87%	-7.82%	-16.31%	-9.12%	-13.34%	-5.98%	-5.96%	-8.59%	-5.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	10	6	6	9	9	12	6	7	10	3
2014 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	No		Not Yet
High	49.31	48.25	46.78	45.83	45.66	43.10	42.97	41.85	39.53	41.96	45.05	43.74
Low	47.30	44.63	43.21	42.68	41.90	40.18	40.87	39.20	37.14	37.50	39.85	40.37
Close/Last	47.82	45.29	43.26	44.93	41.98	42.31	41.27	39.49	37.93	41.79	40.42	41.88