MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	21	20	18	23	22	20	21	29	26	27
Exceeded High		16	16	14	16	17	16	16	18	25	22	18
Scenario Percentage		76%	76%	70%	89%	74%	73%	80%	86%	86%	85%	67%
Avg Max Increase		17.85%	11.34%	8.05%	11.10%	9.70%	11.42%	15.06%	14.16%	10.60%	9.78%	5.25%
Max Increase		63.86%	47.53%	25.97%	23.58%	19.19%	46.74%	61.85%	41.38%	33.57%	30.11%	19.49%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	18	16	18	17	14	19	15	17	11	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.15%	-3.90%	-1.38%	-3.11%	-1.40%	-2.52%	-2.88%	-2.11%	-2.82%	-1.97%	-1.16%
Max Decline		-3.62%	-17.57%	-7.06%	-10.08%	-3.74%	-8.98%	-9.56%	-7.42%	-19.15%	-7.65%	-4.35%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	11	6	4	5	11	11	8	6	5	3
2013 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	23	23	27	21	23	24	24	16	19	18
Penetrated Low		18	19	17	23	17	17	20	13	12	15	13
Scenario Percentage		86%	83%	74%	85%	81%	74%	83%	54%	75%	79%	72%
Avg Max Decline		9.74%	6.36%	8.78%	8.78%	8.21%	7.33%	7.00%	8.74%	6.24%	4.96%	3.77%
Max Decline		24.55%	25.89%	42.37%	31.91%	18.39%	23.36%	29.40%	23.25%	16.61%	13.47%	13.64%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	16	17	17	19	16	17	10	15	12	9
Avg Max Increase		-2.14%	-3.18%	-3.01%	-1.99%	-4.16%	-3.54%	-3.31%	-2.41%	-2.78%	-2.77%	-1.55%
Max Increase		-11.51%	-12.73%	-11.87%	-7.82%	-16.31%	-9.12%	-13.34%	-5.98%	-5.96%	-8.59%	-5.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	11	7	6	9	9	12	6	7	10	3
2013 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	No	No		Yes		Not Yet
High	56.67	53.94	57.03	57.76	58.54	53.62	52.10	52.27	53.40	53.98	51.03	50.50
Low	50.11	49.35	52.58	52.55	52.70	50.70	47.85	48.40	49.51	49.07	48.67	48.00
Close/Last	50.80	53.88	54.11	57.24	53.70	51.35	50.65	50.18	53.28	49.12	50.11	49.13