MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		41	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	20	19	18	23	22	21	21	30	25	28
Exceeded High		15	15	13	16	17	16	17	18	26	22	19
Scenario Percentage		75%	75%	68%	89%	74%	73%	81%	86%	87%	88%	68%
Avg Max Increase		18.56%	11.55%	8.49%	11.10%	9.70%	11.42%	14.33%	14.18%	10.25%	9.78%	5.03%
Max Increase		63.86%	47.53%	25.97%	23.58%	19.19%	46.74%	61.85%	41.38%	33.57%	30.11%	19.49%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	19	17	18	17	14	18	15	16	11	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.06%	-3.97%	-1.52%	-3.11%	-1.40%	-2.52%	-2.79%	-2.14%	-2.73%	-1.97%	-1.15%
Max Decline		-3.62%	-17.57%	-7.06%	-10.08%	-3.74%	-8.98%	-9.56%	-7.42%	-19.15%	-7.65%	-4.35%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	12	6	4	5	11	11	8	6	5	2
2012 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			No	No		No		Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		41	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	24	24	27	21	23	23	24	15	20	17
Penetrated Low		18	20	18	23	17	17	20	13	11	16	13
Scenario Percentage		86%	83%	75%	85%	81%	74%	87%	54%	73%	80%	76%
Avg Max Decline		9.74%	6.15%	8.53%	8.55%	7.97%	7.33%	7.00%	8.74%	6.60%	4.84%	3.77%
Max Decline		24.55%	25.89%	42.37%	31.91%	18.39%	23.36%	29.40%	23.25%	16.61%	13.47%	13.64%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	16	18	17	20	16	17	10	15	12	9
Avg Max Increase		-2.14%	-3.16%	-3.05%	-2.07%	-4.14%	-3.54%	-3.31%	-2.41%	-2.68%	-2.62%	-1.55%
Max Increase		-11.51%	-12.73%	-11.87%	-7.82%	-16.31%	-9.12%	-13.34%	-5.98%	-5.96%	-8.59%	-5.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	11	7	6	9	9	12	6	5	10	3
2012 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes		Yes		Yes			Yes
Action		Yes			Yes		Yes		No			Yes
High	60.18	60.70	59.65	59.34	59.32	54.74	53.53	53.01	54.15	55.25	55.82	57.45
Low	56.23	56.53	56.51	54.01	50.66	49.55	49.15	49.10	50.50	51.23	52.88	54.39
Close/Last	59.90	56.75	57.08	59.28	50.77	52.14	50.24	52.78	51.31	54.47	55.10	54.66