MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		39	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	20	20	18	22	22	20	22	29	25	29
Exceeded High		15	16	14	16	17	16	16	19	25	21	19
Scenario Percentage		75%	80%	70%	89%	77%	73%	80%	86%	86%	84%	66%
Avg Max Increase		18.56%	10.94%	8.38%	10.40%	9.36%	11.36%	15.64%	13.80%	10.47%	10.10%	4.98%
Max Increase		63.86%	47.53%	25.97%	23.58%	19.19%	46.74%	61.85%	41.38%	33.57%	30.11%	19.49%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	18	18	19	16	14	17	15	16	12	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.06%	-3.89%	-1.43%	-3.00%	-1.22%	-2.53%	-2.35%	-2.04%	-2.70%	-2.06%	-1.15%
Max Decline		-3.62%	-17.57%	-7.06%	-10.08%	-3.74%	-8.98%	-9.56%	-7.42%	-19.15%	-7.65%	-4.35%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	10	6	4	4	11	9	8	6	6	2
2010 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action						Yes	Yes			Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		39	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	24	23	27	22	23	24	23	16	20	16
Penetrated Low		16	20	18	23	18	17	21	13	11	16	9
Scenario Percentage		84%	83%	78%	85%	82%	74%	88%	57%	69%	80%	56%
Avg Max Decline		10.58%	6.15%	8.53%	8.73%	7.85%	7.52%	6.86%	8.19%	6.04%	4.73%	3.62%
Max Decline		24.55%	25.89%	42.37%	31.91%	18.39%	23.36%	29.40%	23.25%	16.61%	13.47%	13.64%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	16	18	17	21	16	16	10	15	13	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.06%	-3.16%	-3.05%	-1.72%	-3.94%	-3.41%	-3.19%	-2.18%	-2.43%	-2.49%	-1.29%
Max Increase		-11.51%	-12.73%	-11.87%	-6.73%	-16.31%	-9.12%	-13.34%	-5.98%	-5.96%	-8.59%	-5.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	11	7	5	10	9	12	5	5	8	1
2010 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	No			Yes	Yes		Yes
High	41.23	41.98	37.54	40.31	36.79	39.74	42.05	42.10	42.28	39.89	41.05	40.48
Low	37.95	36.00	33.50	36.13	34.30	34.79	37.28	38.46	36.28	36.26	38.02	38.35
Close/Last	40.48	36.62	36.62	36.33	35.42	37.42	41.29	41.16	36.61	39.70	38.31	38.58