MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		37	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		19	20	21	20	23	22	19	23	28	25	28
Exceeded High		14	16	15	18	18	16	15	19	24	21	19
Scenario Percentage		74%	80%	71%	90%	78%	73%	79%	83%	86%	84%	68%
Avg Max Increase		19.69%	10.94%	8.90%	11.05%	9.22%	11.66%	15.92%	13.80%	10.76%	9.30%	4.63%
Max Increase		63.86%	47.53%	25.97%	23.58%	19.19%	46.74%	61.85%	41.38%	33.57%	30.11%	19.49%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	18	18	19	18	16	18	15	17	12	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.12%	-3.89%	-1.37%	-2.81%	-1.26%	-2.71%	-2.45%	-2.04%	-2.79%	-2.01%	-1.13%
Max Decline		-3.62%	-17.57%	-7.06%	-10.08%	-3.74%	-9.64%	-9.56%	-7.42%	-19.15%	-7.65%	-4.35%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	10	6	5	4	12	9	8	6	6	2
2008 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		37	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		18	24	22	25	21	23	25	22	17	20	17
Penetrated Low		15	20	17	22	17	16	22	12	12	16	12
Scenario Percentage		83%	83%	77%	88%	81%	70%	88%	55%	71%	80%	71%
Avg Max Decline		10.71%	5.09%	6.36%	7.68%	7.28%	7.10%	6.55%	8.35%	6.13%	4.86%	3.84%
Max Decline		24.55%	16.28%	13.20%	21.91%	18.39%	23.36%	29.40%	23.25%	16.61%	13.47%	13.64%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	16	17	17	21	17	17	12	16	13	9
Avg Max Increase		-2.03%	-3.26%	-3.27%	-1.71%	-3.59%	-3.67%	-2.97%	-1.94%	-2.41%	-2.33%	-1.66%
Max Increase		-11.51%	-12.73%	-11.87%	-6.73%	-16.31%	-9.12%	-13.34%	-4.69%	-5.96%	-8.59%	-5.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	11	8	6	10	9	12	6	8	9	3
2008 Contract Condition				Yes							Yes
Action				No							Yes
High	37.95	39.40	39.70	39.60	41.30	44.10	48.10	50.48	54.90	69.15	72.69	63.05
Low	34.82	36.50	37.84	35.55	38.39	39.20	42.45	45.90	50.25	54.33	51.48	48.60
Close/Last	37.65	38.46	39.60	37.92	41.01	44.10	47.15	50.11	54.36	68.82	51.48	57.67