MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	36	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	18	19	21	20	23	21	18	23	28	26	27
Exceeded High	13	15	15	18	17	15	14	18	24	21	19
Scenario Percentage	72%	79%	71%	90%	74%	71%	78%	78%	86%	81%	70%
Avg Max Increase	20.95%	11.38%	8.90%	10.64%	8.91%	11.34%	14.59%	12.69%	10.50%	9.30%	4.63%
Max Increase	63.86%	47.53%	25.97%	23.58%	19.19%	46.74%	61.85%	41.38%	33.57%	30.11%	19.49%
Avg Days To Max Increase	15	17	18	19	17	16	18	15	18	12	8
Avg Max Decline	-1.13%	-3.47%	-1.37%	-2.60%	-1.12%	-2.71%	-2.65%	-2.15%	-3.00%	-2.01%	-1.13%
Max Decline	-3.62%	-17.57%	-7.06%	-10.08%	-3.01%	-9.64%	-9.56%	-7.42%	-19.15%	-7.65%	-4.35%
Avg Days to Max Decline	9	10	6	5	4	12	10	8	7	6	2
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	No			Yes	No			Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	36	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	18	24	22	25	21	24	26	22	17	19	18
Penetrated Low	15	20	17	22	17	17	22	12	12	15	13
Scenario Percentage	83%	83%	77%	88%	81%	71%	85%	55%	71%	79%	72%
Avg Max Decline	10.71%	5.09%	6.36%	7.68%	7.28%	6.97%	6.55%	8.35%	6.13%	4.81%	10.99%
Max Decline	24.55%	16.28%	13.20%	21.91%	18.39%	23.36%	29.40%	23.25%	16.61%	13.47%	54.23%
Avg Days To Max Decline	19	16	17	17	21	17	17	12	16	14	11
Avg Max Increase	-2.03%	-3.26%	-3.27%	-1.71%	-3.59%	-3.51%	-2.97%	-1.94%	-2.41%	-2.24%	-2.05%
Max Increase	-11.51%	-12.73%	-11.87%	-6.73%	-16.31%	-9.12%	-13.34%	-4.69%	-5.96%	-8.59%	-5.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase	8	11	8	6	10	9	12	6	8	10	4
2007 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes			Yes	No
High	28.25	29.40	29.05	26.80	28.61	30.52	30.49	30.47	31.67	33.07	33.52
Low	25.95	27.65	26.13	24.83	24.69	27.85	28.50	28.35	29.26	29.66	30.98
Close/Last	28.06	28.57	26.82	25.45	27.80	30.39	30.14	29.81	30.76	32.48	33.35