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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   23 21 20 19 23 17 26 23 16 18 25
Exceeded High   17 17 14 13 17 16 20 16 12 14 19
Scenario Percentage   74% 81% 70% 68% 74% 94% 77% 70% 75% 78% 76%
Avg Max Increase   11.12% 10.05% 13.24% 9.76% 7.08% 10.42% 9.97% 9.76% 13.52% 12.10% 6.05%
Max Increase   39.42% 27.83% 69.44% 51.45% 28.43% 22.17% 18.98% 24.14% 34.27% 32.65% 14.61%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 12 16 15 16 18 17 14 18 9 7
Avg Max Decline   -1.67% -2.33% -1.47% -3.85% -2.05% -2.50% -1.90% -2.44% -2.43% -2.02% -0.70%
Max Decline   -5.02% -7.02% -3.74% -10.77% -9.39% -5.59% -5.22% -9.47% -6.21% -3.28% -3.60%
Avg Days to Max Decline   13 9 9 9 7 7 8 12 10 6 2
2025 Contract Condition     Yes       Yes Yes     Yes  
Action     Yes       Yes Yes     Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 24 24 26 22 28 19 22 29 27 20
Penetrated Low   16 21 21 18 16 23 15 18 25 17 11
Scenario Percentage   76% 88% 88% 69% 73% 82% 79% 82% 86% 63% 55%
Avg Max Decline   8.03% 7.52% 9.51% 8.85% 8.74% 8.40% 7.36% 6.43% 6.27% 7.54% 4.06%
Max Decline   12.59% 18.57% 17.54% 26.20% 42.77% 32.62% 17.48% 14.46% 24.49% 21.10% 7.63%
Avg Days To Max Decline   21 23 17 17 18 15 19 18 15 12 8
Avg Max Increase   -2.24% -2.56% -2.97% -2.26% -2.17% -1.78% -3.67% -3.69% -3.01% -2.83% -2.01%
Max Increase   -6.86% -5.96% -12.50% -9.09% -6.77% -7.87% -10.07% -15.62% -8.74% -6.75% -5.02%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 12 6 8 5 4 9 11 10 7 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes   Yes
Action   Yes   Yes Yes No     Yes No   Yes
High 49.46 49.87 47.67 46.23 48.48 42.71 44.93 45.38 49.38 43.74 47.10 48.09
Low 44.62 44.28 44.02 43.06 41.10 38.08 38.99 41.55 41.00 39.50 39.56 43.50
Close/Last 48.36 44.61 46.31 43.94 42.36 42.20 43.45 45.15 42.07 40.36 46.11 43.53

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