MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	22	20	17	23	19	25	23	17	18	27
Exceeded High		18	17	13	12	18	17	18	17	12	14	20
Scenario Percentage		75%	77%	65%	71%	78%	89%	72%	74%	71%	78%	74%
Avg Max Increase		11.51%	10.24%	13.31%	10.29%	7.59%	10.38%	10.12%	9.87%	13.52%	12.76%	6.90%
Max Increase		39.42%	27.83%	69.44%	51.45%	28.43%	22.17%	18.98%	24.14%	34.27%	32.65%	23.04%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	13	16	16	16	19	17	13	18	9	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.56%	-1.96%	-1.55%	-3.51%	-1.58%	-2.68%	-2.01%	-2.30%	-2.43%	-1.81%	-0.65%
Max Decline		-5.02%	-6.38%	-3.74%	-10.77%	-7.25%	-9.35%	-5.22%	-9.47%	-6.21%	-3.28%	-3.60%
Avg Days to Max Decline		13	7	9	10	6	7	9	11	10	5	2
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No				No		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	23	24	28	22	26	20	22	28	27	18
Penetrated Low		14	21	21	19	17	22	15	17	24	16	11
Scenario Percentage		70%	91%	88%	68%	77%	85%	75%	77%	86%	59%	61%
Avg Max Decline		8.14%	7.52%	9.66%	8.67%	8.45%	8.27%	7.37%	6.45%	6.03%	7.74%	3.85%
Max Decline		12.59%	18.57%	25.30%	26.20%	42.77%	32.62%	17.48%	14.46%	24.49%	21.10%	9.40%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	23	18	17	18	15	20	17	15	11	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.65%	-2.56%	-2.30%	-2.25%	-2.61%	-1.70%	-3.55%	-3.67%	-3.04%	-2.73%	-1.95%
Max Increase		-5.21%	-5.96%	-12.50%	-9.09%	-9.60%	-7.87%	-10.07%	-15.62%	-8.74%	-6.75%	-5.02%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	12	7	8	6	4	9	12	11	5	3
2022 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	No		Yes
High	48.49	52.44	58.04	64.68	64.05	62.89	59.66	63.30	61.44	58.66	66.77	74.72
Low	42.83	44.79	51.13	50.29	56.70	55.91	54.30	57.37	54.82	51.10	56.30	62.70
Close/Last	45.36	50.90	56.37	61.39	61.21	58.54	58.27	60.44	55.32	56.53	64.82	72.89