MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	22	20	18	22	19	24	22	14	17	27
Exceeded High		18	17	14	13	17	16	18	16	9	13	19
Scenario Percentage		75%	77%	70%	72%	77%	84%	75%	73%	64%	76%	70%
Avg Max Increase		11.39%	15.44%	19.48%	11.09%	7.76%	9.71%	9.43%	9.10%	11.61%	10.64%	6.50%
Max Increase		39.42%	76.66%	69.44%	51.45%	28.43%	22.17%	18.98%	24.14%	34.27%	32.65%	23.04%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	13	15	16	15	19	16	12	19	9	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.74%	-2.36%	-1.37%	-4.55%	-1.52%	-2.64%	-1.94%	-2.30%	-2.93%	-1.70%	-0.67%
Max Decline		-5.02%	-6.38%	-3.74%	-18.49%	-7.25%	-9.35%	-5.22%	-9.47%	-6.21%	-3.28%	-3.60%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	7	6	11	5	8	7	11	10	5	2
2019 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes				Yes
Action			No				Yes				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	23	24	27	23	26	21	23	31	28	18
Penetrated Low		14	22	21	18	18	23	17	18	27	16	11
Scenario Percentage		74%	96%	88%	67%	78%	88%	81%	78%	87%	57%	61%
Avg Max Decline		8.56%	7.43%	9.66%	8.53%	8.67%	8.24%	8.40%	7.63%	6.82%	8.35%	3.40%
Max Decline		12.59%	18.57%	25.30%	26.20%	42.77%	32.62%	19.01%	22.84%	30.93%	24.16%	5.40%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	22	18	16	18	15	20	17	16	10	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.88%	-2.44%	-2.30%	-2.22%	-3.23%	-1.80%	-4.55%	-3.33%	-3.39%	-2.38%	-1.82%
Max Increase		-5.21%	-5.96%	-12.50%	-9.09%	-13.21%	-7.87%	-17.82%	-9.66%	-13.99%	-6.23%	-3.86%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	12	7	8	7	4	9	11	11	6	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	No	No		Yes
High	33.87	34.07	33.38	32.80	30.36	29.83	30.00	30.50	29.06	29.50	30.48	31.01
Low	32.62	31.97	31.56	29.18	28.53	28.61	27.69	28.23	27.42	27.58	27.85	29.62
Close/Last	33.22	32.06	32.46	30.32	29.84	29.28	29.52	28.49	28.30	27.85	30.17	29.96