MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		25	23	21	19	21	18	23	22	15	18	29
Exceeded High		19	19	15	14	16	15	16	16	10	14	19
Scenario Percentage		76%	83%	71%	74%	76%	83%	70%	73%	67%	78%	66%
Avg Max Increase		12.28%	17.22%	22.80%	12.35%	7.75%	9.89%	9.94%	12.18%	18.41%	14.92%	6.50%
Max Increase		39.42%	76.66%	69.44%	51.45%	28.43%	22.17%	18.98%	53.06%	79.61%	43.40%	23.04%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	14	15	17	15	19	17	14	19	11	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.75%	-2.68%	-1.12%	-4.42%	-1.39%	-3.28%	-1.83%	-2.44%	-2.88%	-1.52%	-0.67%
Max Decline		-5.02%	-8.92%	-3.74%	-18.49%	-7.25%	-10.23%	-5.22%	-9.47%	-6.21%	-3.28%	-3.60%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	6	8	10	5	8	7	12	9	4	2
2016 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No				Yes	Yes	No	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		18	22	23	26	24	27	22	23	30	27	16
Penetrated Low		12	21	20	18	19	23	17	19	26	14	8
Scenario Percentage		67%	95%	87%	69%	79%	85%	77%	83%	87%	52%	50%
Avg Max Decline		9.06%	7.82%	9.71%	8.24%	8.90%	8.53%	8.58%	7.74%	6.92%	8.74%	3.42%
Max Decline		12.59%	18.57%	25.30%	26.20%	42.77%	32.62%	19.01%	22.84%	30.93%	24.16%	5.28%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	23	18	16	18	16	18	17	16	10	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.76%	-2.35%	-2.54%	-2.78%	-3.29%	-1.81%	-4.42%	-3.62%	-3.15%	-2.43%	-1.80%
Max Increase		-4.58%	-5.96%	-12.50%	-10.09%	-13.21%	-7.87%	-17.82%	-9.66%	-13.99%	-6.23%	-3.86%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	12	7	10	7	4	9	10	11	6	3
2016 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes
Action					Yes	No	No					Yes
High	33.65	33.06	34.15	35.44	34.25	31.35	28.71	29.91	29.89	32.72	31.24	32.20
Low	30.88	31.23	32.06	32.90	30.67	26.22	26.74	27.66	27.25	29.46	29.00	30.45
Close/Last	31.23	32.32	33.47	34.21	30.78	28.72	27.90	28.75	29.67	30.75	30.88	30.64