MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	35	44	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	20	20	21	20	22	21	23	21	14	22	26
Exceeded High	16	16	17	16	17	18	16	15	10	16	17
Scenario Percentage	80%	80%	81%	80%	77%	86%	70%	71%	71%	73%	65%
Avg Max Increase	12.01%	19.06%	21.43%	12.21%	9.66%	11.30%	9.81%	12.07%	19.55%	14.33%	7.06%
Max Increase	39.42%	76.66%	69.44%	51.45%	28.43%	26.42%	18.98%	53.06%	79.61%	43.40%	23.04%
Avg Days To Max Increase	21	18	15	18	18	20	16	16	21	12	8
Avg Max Decline	-2.11%	-3.15%	-1.23%	-3.53%	-1.37%	-2.64%	-1.18%	-2.72%	-2.12%	-1.50%	-0.71%
Max Decline	-6.63%	-8.92%	-4.31%	-18.49%	-7.25%	-10.23%	-4.45%	-10.53%	-6.21%	-3.28%	-3.60%
Avg Days to Max Decline	16	7	8	10	5	7	4	14	8	5	1
2007 Contract Condition	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes
Action	Yes		Yes	No			Yes	No			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	35	44	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	15	24	22	24	23	24	22	24	31	23	19
Penetrated Low	9	22	18	17	19	22	17	19	26	13	10
Scenario Percentage	60%	92%	82%	71%	83%	92%	77%	79%	84%	57%	53%
Avg Max Decline	9.21%	7.39%	10.17%	6.07%	6.79%	7.17%	7.61%	6.74%	6.52%	8.45%	16.21%
Max Decline	12.59%	18.57%	25.30%	16.81%	13.44%	19.59%	19.01%	22.84%	30.93%	24.16%	57.62%
Avg Days To Max Decline	21	23	20	16	16	16	20	15	15	11	13
Avg Max Increase	-1.82%	-2.08%	-2.43%	-2.92%	-3.49%	-1.60%	-3.85%	-3.51%	-2.88%	-1.89%	-4.37%
Max Increase	-4.58%	-5.78%	-12.50%	-10.09%	-13.21%	-6.45%	-17.82%	-9.66%	-13.99%	-4.52%	-15.93%
Avg Days to Max Increase	4	10	9	12	8	4	10	9	11	5	-66
2007 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes	Not Yet
High	27.60	27.72	27.95	29.15	28.65	26.40	28.40	30.25	30.16	30.05	31.10
Low	24.15	26.10	25.65	27.25	25.70	24.50	24.28	27.40	28.04	27.88	28.55
Close/Last	26.90	26.69	27.75	28.12	26.43	25.05	27.50	30.07	29.70	29.34	30.25