MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for January Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jul 11, 2025 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Tested Years | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
| Closed Higher | 27 | 24 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 17 | 27 | 24 | 16 | |
| Exceeded High | 27 | 23 | 19 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 20 | 16 | 12 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 100% | 96% | 76% | 80% | 70% | 65% | 68% | 94% | 74% | 67% | 75% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 7.08% | 9.60% | 11.93% | 10.81% | 13.62% | 9.84% | 8.29% | 10.56% | 11.69% | 8.90% | 5.63% | |
| Max Increase | 20.27% | 30.45% | 41.28% | 29.07% | 73.84% | 53.60% | 29.96% | 22.12% | 30.16% | 21.47% | 11.75% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 15 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 9 | 7 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.24% | -1.42% | -1.40% | -2.39% | -1.70% | -4.00% | -2.38% | -2.57% | -1.80% | -1.99% | -0.95% | |
| Max Decline | -5.62% | -6.08% | -4.75% | -7.30% | -5.39% | -10.70% | -9.69% | -6.35% | -5.26% | -7.20% | -6.09% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 4 | |
| 2025 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
| Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
