MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		29	25	26	21	20	19	23	18	27	24	16
Exceeded High		29	24	20	16	13	13	17	16	19	15	11
Scenario Percentage		100%	96%	77%	76%	65%	68%	74%	89%	70%	63%	69%
Avg Max Increase		7.21%	9.92%	12.17%	11.22%	13.78%	9.84%	8.53%	10.30%	11.82%	8.68%	5.31%
Max Increase		20.27%	30.45%	41.28%	29.07%	73.84%	53.60%	29.96%	22.12%	30.16%	20.75%	11.75%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	17	16	14	17	17	18	19	18	9	5
Avg Max Decline		-1.16%	-1.69%	-1.37%	-2.00%	-1.75%	-4.00%	-2.34%	-2.33%	-1.81%	-1.80%	-0.62%
Max Decline		-5.62%	-6.08%	-4.75%	-6.59%	-5.39%	-10.70%	-9.69%	-6.35%	-5.26%	-7.20%	-6.09%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	9	8	8	9	9	8	4	7	7	3
2023 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		15	19	19	24	25	26	22	27	18	21	29
Penetrated Low		11	14	14	22	22	18	16	22	15	16	14
Scenario Percentage		73%	74%	74%	92%	88%	69%	73%	81%	83%	76%	48%
Avg Max Decline		6.24%	5.74%	8.34%	8.73%	9.76%	8.19%	9.13%	8.49%	7.55%	5.46%	2.87%
Max Decline		14.48%	13.42%	12.99%	27.00%	17.81%	26.56%	42.91%	32.78%	17.37%	14.41%	5.80%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	19	20	22	17	16	16	16	19	10	5
Avg Max Increase		-2.41%	-3.49%	-1.81%	-2.76%	-2.46%	-2.37%	-1.81%	-1.74%	-3.66%	-2.45%	-0.54%
Max Increase		-4.32%	-7.94%	-5.23%	-5.93%	-13.28%	-9.12%	-7.14%	-7.33%	-10.21%	-6.61%	-1.22%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	16	9	12	5	8	5	4	9	8	3
2023 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes			Yes
Action			No		Yes	Yes			No			Not Yet
High	62.52	68.28	67.70	77.19	75.65	78.78	65.91	67.73	67.00	71.44	75.94	71.31
Low	54.57	59.96	61.82	62.14	71.29	62.95	54.29	60.05	60.11	60.84	69.18	58.94
Close/Last	61.27	64.18	63.08	74.51	74.37	64.23	65.46	66.56	60.89	70.61	71.88	63.81