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ScenarioSM Study for January Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Aug 18, 2023 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Tested Years | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 29 | 25 | 26 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 23 | 18 | 27 | 24 | 16 | |
Exceeded High | 29 | 24 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 19 | 15 | 11 | |
Scenario Percentage | 100% | 96% | 77% | 76% | 65% | 68% | 74% | 89% | 70% | 63% | 69% | |
Avg Max Increase | 7.21% | 9.92% | 12.17% | 11.22% | 13.78% | 9.84% | 8.53% | 10.30% | 11.82% | 8.68% | 5.31% | |
Max Increase | 20.27% | 30.45% | 41.28% | 29.07% | 73.84% | 53.60% | 29.96% | 22.12% | 30.16% | 20.75% | 11.75% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 9 | 5 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.16% | -1.69% | -1.37% | -2.00% | -1.75% | -4.00% | -2.34% | -2.33% | -1.81% | -1.80% | -0.62% | |
Max Decline | -5.62% | -6.08% | -4.75% | -6.59% | -5.39% | -10.70% | -9.69% | -6.35% | -5.26% | -7.20% | -6.09% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |
2023 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.