MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		28	26	27	22	20	18	21	19	24	24	14
Exceeded High		28	25	21	17	14	13	15	16	17	16	9
Scenario Percentage		100%	96%	78%	77%	70%	72%	71%	84%	71%	67%	64%
Avg Max Increase		6.56%	8.68%	12.67%	15.84%	19.97%	11.10%	8.85%	9.93%	10.26%	8.50%	6.10%
Max Increase		14.70%	19.91%	41.28%	76.18%	73.84%	53.60%	29.96%	22.12%	20.47%	21.47%	11.75%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	17	17	14	16	18	17	19	16	9	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.01%	-1.80%	-1.79%	-2.37%	-1.61%	-4.67%	-1.83%	-2.68%	-1.83%	-1.87%	-1.16%
Max Decline		-5.62%	-6.08%	-7.76%	-6.59%	-5.39%	-18.78%	-7.29%	-9.37%	-5.26%	-7.20%	-6.09%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	9	9	7	6	10	6	5	6	9	4
2019 Contract Condition					Yes				Yes
Action					No				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		14	18	18	23	25	27	24	26	21	21	31
Penetrated Low		10	15	14	22	22	19	18	23	17	16	15
Scenario Percentage		71%	83%	78%	96%	88%	70%	75%	88%	81%	76%	48%
Avg Max Decline		5.13%	5.59%	8.88%	7.83%	10.23%	8.42%	9.11%	8.44%	8.47%	5.79%	3.03%
Max Decline		14.48%	13.42%	13.33%	18.81%	25.87%	26.56%	42.91%	32.78%	20.13%	14.41%	5.80%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	18	20	22	18	16	16	16	20	11	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.17%	-3.44%	-1.90%	-2.45%	-2.26%	-2.36%	-2.94%	-1.84%	-4.80%	-2.86%	-0.53%
Max Increase		-4.32%	-7.94%	-5.23%	-5.91%	-13.28%	-9.12%	-13.90%	-7.33%	-19.53%	-9.68%	-1.22%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	15	10	12	5	7	6	4	9	8	3
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet	Not Yet
High	34.16	34.07	33.69	33.84	33.08	32.51	30.04	29.50	29.70	30.25	28.79	29.25
Low	32.90	32.47	32.41	31.63	31.26	28.80	28.21	28.30	27.37	27.97	27.18	27.27
Close/Last	33.86	33.05	32.99	31.74	32.13	29.99	29.55	28.99	29.23	28.24	28.06	27.55