MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		29	27	28	22	21	19	21	19	24	25	15
Exceeded High		29	26	22	18	15	14	15	16	17	16	9
Scenario Percentage		100%	96%	79%	82%	71%	74%	71%	84%	71%	64%	60%
Avg Max Increase		6.95%	9.73%	13.37%	17.27%	22.89%	11.92%	8.85%	10.34%	10.26%	9.39%	6.18%
Max Increase		17.89%	35.80%	41.28%	76.18%	73.84%	53.60%	29.96%	22.12%	20.47%	26.54%	11.75%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	17	17	15	16	17	17	20	16	9	6
Avg Max Decline		-1.07%	-1.81%	-1.86%	-2.73%	-1.50%	-4.61%	-1.83%	-3.33%	-1.83%	-1.57%	-0.82%
Max Decline		-5.62%	-6.08%	-7.76%	-8.93%	-5.39%	-18.78%	-7.29%	-11.08%	-5.26%	-7.20%	-6.09%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	9	9	7	7	10	6	5	6	7	3
2018 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes				Yes	Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		13	17	17	23	24	26	24	26	21	20	30
Penetrated Low		9	14	13	22	21	18	18	23	16	16	15
Scenario Percentage		69%	82%	76%	96%	88%	69%	75%	88%	76%	80%	50%
Avg Max Decline		5.22%	5.61%	8.85%	7.83%	10.44%	8.48%	9.46%	8.44%	8.76%	5.72%	2.89%
Max Decline		14.48%	13.42%	13.33%	18.81%	25.87%	26.56%	42.91%	32.78%	20.13%	14.41%	5.80%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	19	20	22	18	16	15	16	19	11	5
Avg Max Increase		-2.14%	-3.50%	-1.72%	-2.45%	-2.36%	-2.50%	-2.87%	-1.84%	-4.98%	-2.86%	-0.53%
Max Increase		-4.32%	-7.94%	-5.23%	-5.91%	-13.28%	-9.12%	-13.90%	-7.33%	-19.53%	-9.68%	-1.22%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	16	9	12	5	8	6	4	9	8	3
2018 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet
High	36.64	35.42	35.46	33.04	33.99	33.98	35.70	35.61	36.20	35.28	35.61	34.05
Low	33.95	33.22	32.16	31.84	31.78	31.67	32.65	33.09	32.83	32.47	33.58	32.32
Close/Last	34.34	34.67	32.60	32.30	32.05	33.50	35.27	35.21	32.99	34.92	33.85	33.08