MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		27	29	28	22	21	20	21	19	24	23	14
Exceeded High		27	28	22	18	16	15	14	16	15	15	10
Scenario Percentage		100%	97%	79%	82%	76%	75%	67%	84%	63%	65%	71%
Avg Max Increase		7.37%	9.75%	13.12%	18.32%	22.34%	12.03%	8.74%	10.94%	10.22%	9.88%	6.48%
Max Increase		17.89%	35.80%	41.28%	76.18%	73.84%	53.60%	29.96%	22.12%	20.47%	26.54%	11.75%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	17	18	16	16	19	16	20	16	9	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.05%	-1.77%	-2.15%	-2.84%	-1.49%	-4.57%	-1.70%	-3.24%	-1.32%	-1.92%	-1.20%
Max Decline		-5.62%	-6.08%	-7.76%	-8.93%	-5.39%	-18.78%	-7.29%	-11.08%	-4.43%	-7.20%	-6.09%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	8	10	7	9	10	6	5	5	10	4
2015 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		No		No			Yes	No

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		15	15	17	23	24	25	24	26	21	22	31
Penetrated Low		10	13	12	21	21	18	18	23	16	18	17
Scenario Percentage		67%	87%	71%	91%	88%	72%	75%	88%	76%	82%	55%
Avg Max Decline		5.09%	5.85%	9.49%	8.23%	10.31%	7.73%	9.37%	8.74%	8.76%	6.07%	3.19%
Max Decline		14.48%	13.42%	13.33%	18.81%	25.87%	26.56%	42.91%	32.78%	20.13%	14.41%	6.97%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	18	21	23	18	15	16	16	19	10	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.30%	-3.44%	-1.74%	-2.37%	-2.49%	-2.95%	-3.01%	-1.83%	-4.98%	-3.17%	-0.45%
Max Increase		-4.32%	-7.94%	-4.38%	-5.91%	-13.28%	-9.84%	-13.90%	-7.33%	-19.53%	-9.68%	-1.22%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	14	8	12	6	9	6	4	9	7	3
2015 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
High	40.29	40.85	43.68	43.11	41.52	41.38	39.50	36.63	34.05	35.16	35.04	33.48
Low	37.90	38.36	39.54	39.94	38.94	38.50	36.05	32.26	31.80	31.86	32.05	31.17
Close/Last	38.61	40.62	39.94	41.45	39.07	39.28	36.57	32.40	32.65	35.02	32.29	31.97