MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		27	29	27	22	21	21	22	19	24	23	15
Exceeded High		26	28	22	18	17	16	15	16	16	15	11
Scenario Percentage		96%	97%	81%	82%	81%	76%	68%	84%	67%	65%	73%
Avg Max Increase		7.36%	9.75%	13.12%	18.32%	21.32%	12.00%	9.81%	12.49%	10.52%	9.88%	6.54%
Max Increase		17.89%	35.80%	41.28%	76.18%	73.84%	53.60%	29.96%	32.54%	20.47%	26.54%	11.75%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	17	18	16	16	19	17	19	16	9	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.09%	-1.77%	-2.15%	-2.84%	-1.43%	-4.37%	-1.66%	-3.26%	-1.29%	-1.92%	-1.19%
Max Decline		-5.62%	-6.08%	-7.76%	-8.93%	-5.39%	-18.78%	-7.29%	-11.08%	-4.43%	-7.20%	-6.09%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	8	10	7	9	11	6	4	5	10	4
2014 Contract Condition			Yes					Yes		Yes
Action			No					No		No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		15	15	18	23	24	24	23	26	21	22	30
Penetrated Low		10	13	13	21	21	17	17	23	16	17	16
Scenario Percentage		67%	87%	72%	91%	88%	71%	74%	88%	76%	77%	53%
Avg Max Decline		5.09%	5.91%	8.99%	7.93%	10.31%	7.42%	9.81%	8.74%	8.76%	6.20%	3.20%
Max Decline		14.48%	13.42%	13.33%	18.81%	25.87%	26.56%	42.91%	32.78%	20.13%	14.41%	6.97%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	18	20	22	18	16	17	16	19	11	7
Avg Max Increase		-2.30%	-2.89%	-1.79%	-2.16%	-2.49%	-3.11%	-3.07%	-1.83%	-4.98%	-3.14%	-0.43%
Max Increase		-4.32%	-6.13%	-4.38%	-5.60%	-13.28%	-9.84%	-13.90%	-7.33%	-19.53%	-9.68%	-1.22%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	15	8	11	6	10	6	4	9	6	3
2014 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
High	52.80	53.16	50.40	50.15	49.43	48.27	46.53	45.48	45.23	42.40	42.29	41.06
Low	49.30	48.81	48.38	47.38	47.24	44.55	42.78	42.08	41.25	39.53	40.07	38.55
Close/Last	52.80	48.87	49.83	48.27	47.74	45.10	42.84	44.44	41.40	41.63	40.46	38.82