MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		38	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		25	29	28	22	22	20	20	19	23	24	15
Exceeded High		24	29	24	18	18	15	15	16	17	16	11
Scenario Percentage		96%	100%	86%	82%	82%	75%	75%	84%	74%	67%	73%
Avg Max Increase		7.64%	9.52%	12.32%	18.41%	20.83%	12.16%	10.12%	11.94%	10.59%	10.09%	7.79%
Max Increase		17.89%	35.80%	41.28%	76.18%	73.84%	53.60%	29.96%	32.54%	20.47%	26.54%	12.54%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	18	18	16	16	19	18	20	15	10	10
Avg Max Decline		-1.07%	-1.74%	-2.19%	-2.81%	-1.49%	-4.30%	-1.77%	-3.18%	-1.07%	-1.93%	-1.07%
Max Decline		-5.62%	-6.08%	-7.76%	-8.93%	-5.39%	-18.78%	-7.29%	-11.08%	-4.43%	-7.20%	-6.09%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	8	11	7	8	10	6	4	3	9	4
2010 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		38	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		13	14	17	23	23	25	25	26	22	21	30
Penetrated Low		8	12	12	21	20	18	20	22	17	17	17
Scenario Percentage		62%	86%	71%	91%	87%	72%	80%	85%	77%	81%	57%
Avg Max Decline		5.06%	6.05%	9.29%	7.93%	10.65%	7.17%	9.31%	8.81%	8.32%	6.25%	3.22%
Max Decline		14.48%	13.42%	13.33%	18.81%	25.87%	26.56%	42.91%	32.78%	20.13%	14.41%	6.97%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	18	20	23	20	16	17	18	21	11	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.07%	-2.69%	-1.64%	-1.96%	-2.43%	-2.96%	-3.18%	-1.65%	-4.69%	-3.07%	-0.45%
Max Increase		-4.32%	-6.13%	-4.38%	-5.60%	-13.28%	-9.84%	-13.90%	-7.30%	-19.53%	-9.68%	-1.22%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	16	4	9	7	11	7	4	9	6	3
2010 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes				Yes	No	Yes	No			Not Yet
High	39.12	36.14	35.03	38.48	40.90	41.67	37.17	39.91	36.40	39.18	41.15	41.40
Low	34.28	31.87	31.28	34.77	37.48	35.71	33.15	35.76	33.69	34.14	36.55	37.66
Close/Last	34.66	32.50	34.97	37.50	40.13	36.24	36.15	36.01	34.75	36.86	40.58	40.35