MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years	37	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	25	28	27	22	22	21	21	20	23	24	15
Exceeded High	24	28	23	18	18	16	16	17	17	15	11
Scenario Percentage	96%	100%	85%	82%	82%	76%	76%	85%	74%	62%	73%
Avg Max Increase	7.64%	9.26%	12.37%	18.31%	20.83%	12.42%	10.77%	12.63%	10.76%	10.61%	7.79%
Max Increase	17.89%	35.80%	41.28%	76.18%	73.84%	53.60%	29.96%	32.54%	20.47%	26.54%	12.54%
Avg Days To Max Increase	18	18	19	17	16	19	18	20	16	10	10
Avg Max Decline	-1.07%	-1.78%	-2.28%	-3.09%	-1.49%	-4.06%	-1.68%	-3.00%	-1.00%	-1.58%	-1.07%
Max Decline	-5.62%	-6.08%	-7.76%	-8.93%	-5.39%	-18.78%	-7.29%	-11.08%	-4.43%	-4.97%	-6.09%
Avg Days to Max Decline	9	9	11	7	8	10	6	3	3	8	4
2009 Contract Condition	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes						Yes
Action	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes						Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years	37	43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	12	14	17	23	23	24	24	25	22	21	30
Penetrated Low	7	12	12	21	19	18	19	22	17	17	22
Scenario Percentage	58%	86%	71%	91%	83%	75%	79%	88%	77%	81%	73%
Avg Max Decline	5.24%	6.05%	9.29%	7.93%	10.76%	7.17%	9.46%	8.81%	8.32%	6.25%	13.61%
Max Decline	14.48%	13.42%	13.33%	18.81%	25.87%	26.56%	42.91%	32.78%	20.13%	14.41%	74.18%
Avg Days To Max Decline	15	18	20	23	20	16	16	18	21	11	12
Avg Max Increase	-2.28%	-2.69%	-1.64%	-1.96%	-2.43%	-2.96%	-3.29%	-1.65%	-4.69%	-3.07%	-0.95%
Max Increase	-4.32%	-6.13%	-4.38%	-5.60%	-13.28%	-9.84%	-13.90%	-7.30%	-19.53%	-9.68%	-5.94%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	16	4	9	7	11	8	4	9	6	4
2009 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High	70.15	74.04	64.50	66.36	69.61	69.90	59.83	53.84	45.92	37.56	33.65
Low	55.85	53.25	50.70	57.00	62.10	58.84	50.96	44.03	31.24	30.25	28.16
Close/Last	70.12	53.25	59.50	63.24	68.20	59.95	54.72	45.00	34.08	32.90	33.29