MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		36	42	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	28	26	21	22	21	21	21	24	24	14
Exceeded High		23	28	22	17	18	16	16	18	18	15	10
Scenario Percentage		96%	100%	85%	81%	82%	76%	76%	86%	75%	63%	71%
Avg Max Increase		7.62%	9.26%	12.16%	18.76%	20.88%	12.42%	10.77%	12.60%	10.41%	10.61%	7.39%
Max Increase		17.89%	35.80%	41.28%	76.18%	73.84%	53.60%	29.96%	32.54%	20.47%	26.54%	12.54%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	18	19	18	16	19	18	20	16	10	10
Avg Max Decline		-1.22%	-1.78%	-2.19%	-3.17%	-1.39%	-4.06%	-1.68%	-2.97%	-1.11%	-1.58%	-1.09%
Max Decline		-5.62%	-6.08%	-7.76%	-8.93%	-5.39%	-18.78%	-7.29%	-11.08%	-4.43%	-4.97%	-6.09%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	9	12	8	8	10	6	4	3	8	4
2008 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		36	42	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		12	13	18	24	23	24	24	24	21	21	31
Penetrated Low		7	11	13	22	19	18	19	21	16	16	18
Scenario Percentage		58%	85%	72%	92%	83%	75%	79%	88%	76%	76%	58%
Avg Max Decline		5.24%	6.17%	8.69%	7.79%	10.76%	6.06%	7.36%	7.67%	7.75%	5.74%	3.29%
Max Decline		14.48%	13.42%	13.33%	18.81%	25.87%	17.16%	14.58%	21.35%	20.13%	11.31%	6.97%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	20	19	23	20	16	15	17	22	11	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.28%	-2.63%	-1.67%	-2.10%	-2.43%	-3.07%	-3.39%	-1.63%	-4.35%	-3.23%	-0.41%
Max Increase		-4.32%	-6.13%	-4.38%	-5.60%	-13.28%	-9.84%	-13.90%	-7.30%	-19.53%	-9.68%	-1.22%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	17	5	10	7	11	8	4	10	7	3
2008 Contract Condition								Yes
Action								No
High	31.90	33.02	34.79	35.22	37.45	39.10	39.33	39.23	40.84	43.13	47.50	49.51
Low	30.08	31.70	31.60	33.10	34.55	36.10	37.50	34.98	37.90	38.55	41.51	44.70
Close/Last	31.45	32.50	34.45	35.05	37.23	38.17	39.17	37.42	40.41	42.72	46.10	48.85