MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years	35	41	43	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	23	27	25	20	21	21	21	21	24	23	13
Exceeded High	22	27	21	16	17	16	16	18	17	13	8
Scenario Percentage	96%	100%	84%	80%	81%	76%	76%	86%	71%	57%	62%
Avg Max Increase	7.59%	9.28%	12.19%	19.58%	21.93%	12.27%	10.77%	12.21%	10.08%	10.22%	6.97%
Max Increase	17.89%	35.80%	41.28%	76.18%	73.84%	53.60%	29.96%	32.54%	20.47%	26.54%	12.35%
Avg Days To Max Increase	18	18	19	18	16	18	18	20	15	10	8
Avg Max Decline	-1.15%	-1.70%	-2.23%	-3.18%	-1.42%	-3.40%	-1.68%	-2.77%	-1.01%	-1.21%	-0.84%
Max Decline	-5.62%	-6.08%	-7.76%	-8.93%	-5.39%	-18.78%	-7.29%	-11.08%	-4.43%	-2.93%	-6.09%
Avg Days to Max Decline	9	8	12	7	8	9	6	4	4	7	4
2007 Contract Condition	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action	Yes		Yes		Yes	No			Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years	35	41	43	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	12	13	18	24	23	24	24	24	21	22	32
Penetrated Low	7	11	13	22	19	18	19	21	16	17	22
Scenario Percentage	58%	85%	72%	92%	83%	75%	79%	88%	76%	77%	69%
Avg Max Decline	5.24%	6.17%	8.69%	7.79%	10.76%	6.06%	7.36%	7.67%	7.75%	5.54%	13.61%
Max Decline	14.48%	13.42%	13.33%	18.81%	25.87%	17.16%	14.58%	21.35%	20.13%	9.73%	74.18%
Avg Days To Max Decline	15	20	19	23	20	16	15	17	22	11	12
Avg Max Increase	-2.28%	-2.63%	-1.67%	-2.10%	-2.43%	-3.07%	-3.39%	-1.63%	-4.35%	-3.11%	-0.90%
Max Increase	-4.32%	-6.13%	-4.38%	-5.60%	-13.28%	-9.84%	-13.90%	-7.30%	-19.53%	-9.68%	-4.82%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	17	5	10	7	11	8	4	10	7	4
2007 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes
High	25.27	26.05	27.62	27.85	27.70	28.95	28.25	26.04	28.23	29.83	29.76
Low	23.63	24.10	23.85	25.85	25.30	26.87	25.35	24.12	23.89	27.15	27.56
Close/Last	25.27	24.40	26.75	26.46	27.47	27.80	26.08	24.64	27.15	29.62	29.26