MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Australian Dollar(CME) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		18	18	18	25	26	27	28	29	29	29	29
Closed Higher		7	13	9	18	9	15	13	14	15	20	16
Exceeded High		5	12	9	14	8	12	12	13	13	16	11
Scenario Percentage		71%	92%	100%	78%	89%	80%	92%	93%	87%	80%	69%
Avg Max Increase		4.16%	4.92%	5.02%	4.16%	2.61%	3.52%	3.53%	4.12%	4.68%	3.84%	1.75%
Max Increase		5.69%	13.48%	15.16%	12.59%	5.02%	9.61%	8.52%	11.04%	9.75%	8.12%	4.11%
Avg Days To Max Increase		11	19	15	18	13	15	19	17	14	10	9
Avg Max Decline		-0.27%	-1.64%	-0.55%	-0.74%	-1.07%	-1.29%	-2.07%	-1.23%	-1.06%	-0.71%	-0.40%
Max Decline		-0.84%	-5.28%	-1.76%	-4.00%	-3.41%	-4.51%	-10.20%	-3.23%	-3.12%	-2.43%	-1.25%
Avg Days to Max Decline		2	9	3	5	12	7	17	7	8	4	3
2015 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes		No				Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		18	18	18	25	26	27	28	29	29	29	29
Closed Lower		11	5	9	7	17	12	15	15	14	9	13
Penetrated Low		6	4	5	7	14	7	13	10	9	7	6
Scenario Percentage		55%	80%	56%	100%	82%	58%	87%	67%	64%	78%	46%
Avg Max Decline		3.78%	4.76%	4.99%	5.20%	2.87%	4.45%	5.35%	7.43%	6.07%	2.53%	2.08%
Max Decline		11.65%	8.78%	10.14%	11.64%	6.26%	11.65%	16.33%	29.41%	24.23%	5.75%	3.34%
Avg Days To Max Decline		9	14	17	22	17	11	15	18	21	16	9
Avg Max Increase		-2.14%	-0.43%	-0.59%	-1.18%	-1.38%	-1.12%	-1.24%	-0.88%	-1.38%	-1.31%	-0.55%
Max Increase		-6.58%	-0.74%	-1.57%	-2.41%	-4.71%	-2.36%	-5.96%	-3.09%	-3.42%	-2.10%	-1.00%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	4	11	11	10	12	11	8	9	8	4
2015 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		No		Yes		Yes	Yes	No
High	82.95	80.54	77.70	78.60	79.38	80.46	77.64	76.60	73.91	72.46	73.58	72.76
Low	79.14	76.11	75.75	74.48	74.65	75.62	75.29	71.86	70.03	68.74	69.72	70.03
Close/Last	79.88	76.41	76.98	75.18	78.24	75.77	76.49	72.42	70.86	69.88	71.17	72.28