MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Australian Dollar(CME) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		15	15	15	22	23	24	25	26	26	26	26
Closed Higher		6	11	7	16	8	13	13	13	14	17	15
Exceeded High		5	10	7	12	7	11	12	12	12	15	10
Scenario Percentage		83%	91%	100%	75%	88%	85%	92%	92%	86%	88%	67%
Avg Max Increase		4.16%	4.99%	5.98%	4.46%	2.65%	3.77%	3.53%	4.40%	4.67%	3.87%	1.74%
Max Increase		5.69%	13.48%	15.16%	12.59%	5.02%	9.61%	8.52%	11.04%	9.75%	8.12%	4.11%
Avg Days To Max Increase		11	19	16	18	15	17	19	18	13	11	10
Avg Max Decline		-0.27%	-1.63%	-0.58%	-0.71%	-1.13%	-1.40%	-2.07%	-1.27%	-1.12%	-0.65%	-0.43%
Max Decline		-0.84%	-5.28%	-1.76%	-4.00%	-3.41%	-4.51%	-10.20%	-3.23%	-3.12%	-2.43%	-1.25%
Avg Days to Max Decline		2	10	3	5	13	8	17	7	8	4	3
2012 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		No		Yes	Yes		No	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		15	15	15	22	23	24	25	26	26	26	26
Closed Lower		9	4	8	6	15	11	12	13	12	9	11
Penetrated Low		5	3	5	6	12	6	10	9	8	7	4
Scenario Percentage		56%	75%	63%	100%	80%	55%	83%	69%	67%	78%	36%
Avg Max Decline		4.03%	6.26%	4.99%	4.13%	2.40%	4.67%	5.65%	7.93%	6.50%	2.64%	2.09%
Max Decline		11.65%	8.78%	10.14%	10.10%	6.18%	11.65%	16.33%	29.41%	24.23%	6.50%	3.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline		9	19	17	21	15	12	16	19	20	16	9
Avg Max Increase		-2.23%	-0.58%	-0.59%	-1.38%	-1.24%	-1.01%	-1.26%	-0.93%	-1.29%	-1.31%	-0.51%
Max Increase		-6.58%	-0.74%	-1.57%	-2.41%	-4.71%	-2.36%	-5.96%	-3.09%	-3.42%	-2.10%	-1.00%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	5	11	12	10	10	9	9	7	8	4
2012 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes			Yes
Action				Yes		Yes			Yes
High	99.41	103.17	104.49	104.52	102.41	101.95	101.00	104.10	104.93	105.37	103.63	104.73
Low	95.89	99.08	102.89	100.82	99.97	95.49	95.44	99.80	101.79	100.77	100.89	102.63
Close/Last	99.40	102.89	104.23	100.83	101.95	95.97	100.92	103.86	102.28	103.03	103.40	104.10