MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Australian Dollar(CME) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		13	13	13	20	21	22	23	24	24	24	24
Closed Higher		5	9	6	14	8	11	11	13	13	15	14
Exceeded High		4	8	6	12	7	9	11	12	12	14	9
Scenario Percentage		80%	89%	100%	86%	88%	82%	100%	92%	92%	93%	64%
Avg Max Increase		4.80%	5.13%	5.96%	4.46%	2.65%	3.78%	3.72%	4.40%	4.67%	3.94%	1.61%
Max Increase		5.69%	13.48%	15.16%	12.59%	5.02%	9.61%	8.52%	11.04%	9.75%	8.12%	4.11%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	20	19	18	15	17	20	18	13	11	9
Avg Max Decline		-0.33%	-1.62%	-0.64%	-0.71%	-1.13%	-1.40%	-1.99%	-1.27%	-1.12%	-0.65%	-0.45%
Max Decline		-0.84%	-5.28%	-1.76%	-4.00%	-3.41%	-4.51%	-10.20%	-3.23%	-3.12%	-2.43%	-1.25%
Avg Days to Max Decline		3	10	3	5	13	7	15	7	8	3	3
2010 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		13	13	13	20	21	22	23	24	24	24	24
Closed Lower		8	4	7	6	13	11	12	11	11	9	10
Penetrated Low		5	3	4	6	10	6	10	7	7	7	3
Scenario Percentage		63%	75%	57%	100%	77%	55%	83%	64%	64%	78%	30%
Avg Max Decline		4.03%	6.26%	4.91%	4.13%	2.63%	4.67%	5.65%	8.29%	6.97%	2.53%	1.55%
Max Decline		11.65%	8.78%	10.14%	10.10%	6.18%	11.65%	16.33%	29.41%	24.23%	5.75%	2.91%
Avg Days To Max Decline		9	19	14	21	15	12	16	24	23	16	5
Avg Max Increase		-2.23%	-0.58%	-0.35%	-1.38%	-1.41%	-1.01%	-1.26%	-1.09%	-1.48%	-1.31%	-0.35%
Max Increase		-6.58%	-0.74%	-1.53%	-2.41%	-4.71%	-2.36%	-5.96%	-3.09%	-3.42%	-2.10%	-0.99%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	5	7	12	11	10	9	11	7	8	1
2010 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes			Yes			Yes
Action		Yes				No			No			Yes
High	88.94	89.57	87.35	89.51	90.86	90.25	86.72	89.24	90.82	96.50	99.36	101.37
Low	84.24	85.39	83.57	86.85	88.97	79.50	79.68	81.62	86.55	88.08	94.64	95.28
Close/Last	86.40	85.39	86.85	88.97	90.08	82.73	82.86	88.92	87.73	95.86	97.42	95.89